Week 11 of the 2025 NFL campaign wraps up with a Monday Night Football showdown between the Dallas Cowboys and Las Vegas Raiders. The season has been a massive disappointment for both teams. Dallas comes in with a 3-5-1 record; Las Vegas is 2-7. You can already stick a fork in the Raiders, while the Cowboys already find themselves in a must-win situation for their faint playoff hopes.
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which get underway at 8:15 pm ET on ESPN. Also be sure to check out our full Cowboys vs Raiders predictions.
Cowboys -5.5 alternate spread (+114)
George Pickens to score a touchdown (+150)
Geno Smith Over 231.5 passing yards (-111)
Parlay odds: +750
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Dallas wide receiver scoring a touchdown would obviously work well with a big win for the Cowboys. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with backing Las Vegas quarterback Geno Smith to throw for his fair share of yards. But even if he does, there is no reason why the visitors can’t take care of business. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
Cowboys -5.5 alternate spread (+114)
This is a fantastic value spot for the Cowboys. They are coming off a bye week and are being mispriced on the road in a venue that is not difficult to play in – especially not when the Raiders have long since been eliminated (albeit not mathematically) from playoff contention. Moreover, Las Vegas is in the midst of a 3-game losing streak – during which it is averaging 12.0 points per contest. The Raiders’ most recent outing against the Broncos set offensive football back several decades – if not more. They combined for a mere 10 first downs in Denver’s 10-7 victory, and Las Vegas averaged a mere 3.2 yards per play. I don’t care how bad the Cowboys’ defense is; it’s hard to see the Raiders’ offense being able to keep up in this contest. Moreover, Dallas’ defense should be improved to at least some extent from what it was prior to the trade deadline. New acquisitions Logan Wilson and Quinnen Williams will make their Cowboy debuts on Monday night.
George Pickens to score a touchdown (+150)
Pickens has gone 3 straight contests without scoring a touchdown. It’s time for him to get back on the horse. I’m not a big fan of the “he’s due” argument, but it is fair to say that a 3-game stretch without a TD is certainly an aberration as opposed to the rule for Pickens. After all, the Georgia product had previously found the endzone in 5 consecutive outings – scoring a total of 6 touchdowns in those 5. He should be able to resume his scoring ways at the expense of a mediocre Las Vegas defense that is #21 league wide in scoring at 24.4 points per game allowed.
Geno Smith Over 231.5 passing yards (-111)
The likely game script – especially the one in this SGP that calls for Dallas to win by at least a touchdown – has Las Vegas playing from behind much if not all of the way and therefore being forced to air it out. On sheer volume alone, Smith should be able to exceed this 231.5 number. The former West Virginia standout has attempted at least 34 passes 4 times this season, including 39 in Week 9 against Jacksonville (which he parlayed into 284 yards and 4 touchdowns). Smith now faces a Cowboys defense that is horrendous against the pass. It is #29 in passing defense (254.4 yards per game allowed) and second-to-last in yards per attempt allowed (8.2).
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