Week 13 of the 2025 NFL campaign continues with a Sunday Night Football matchup between the Denver Broncos and Washington Commanders. It has been a tale of 2 very different seasons for these 2 teams. Denver comes in with 9-2 record and is well on its way to the AFC West crown, while Washington is all but out of it at 3-8.
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which get underway at 8:20 pm ET on NBC. Also be sure to check out our full Broncos vs Commanders predictions.
Broncos -5.5 (-120)
Bo Nix to record 250+ passing yards (+147)
Marcus Mariota to record 200+ passing yards (+110)
Parlay odds: +850
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Denver quarterback Bo Nix having a big day through the air would obviously work well with a Broncos win and cover. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with backing Washington quarterback Marcus Mariota to rack up his fair share of yards. But even if he does, there is no reason why the home team can’t take care of business. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
Broncos -5.5 (-120)
It may not always be pretty, but an 8-game winning streak is…an 8-game winning streak. The sample size of Denver’s success is such that this is clearly no fluke. The Broncos are the real deal. That’s not say they are going to win the Super Bowl by any means (or maybe they will!), but this is a good team that should certainly beat up on the Commanders at home. Denver’s current 8-game surge includes defeas of Houston, Kansas City and Philadelphia, so it is not simply victimizing bad opponents. The Broncos’ defense is #3 in scoring (17.5 points per game allowed) and finds itself in the top 5 of almost every important statistic. Whereas Nix has his team rolling along nicely, the story has been much different for a Washington squad that also thought it would be led back to the playoffs by a second-year signal-caller. Instead, Jayden Daniels has been injured for much of the 2025 campaign will miss Sunday night’s contest because of a dislocated left elbow. That means Marcus Mariota will be back under center. The veteran is decent but unspectacular, and “decent” almost certainly isn’t good enough to do any damage against one of the best defenses in football.
Bo Nix to record 250+ passing yards (+147)
The Commanders rank #31 league wide in defensive EPA. This is an old, borderline washed-up unit that was put together in a seemingly random way and not clicking when healthy. Injuries have plagued it, too, which is why head coach Dan Quinn’s defense is among the worst in the NFL. Washington is especially bad against the pass, giving up 249.5 yards per game through the air (fourth most) and ranking dead last by a country mile in yards per attempt allowed (8.8). Nix, who most recently delivered a 295-yard performance during huge win over division-rival Kansas City, should be able to take full advantage.
Marcus Mariota to record 200+ passing yards (+110)
Mariota should also accrue plenty of passing yards on Sunday. The Commanders will probably be playing behind most of the way if not the entire way, which means they will have to air it out in an effort to prolong the game. Washington probably has no chance to run the ball successfully, anyway. Denver’s defense ranks #3 against the run and #1 with only 3.6 yards per carry allowed. The top 2 running backs on the visitors’ depth chart are Chris Rodriguez Jr. and Jacory Croskey-Merritt, so there is no reason to think that this team is the one that is suddenly able to run the ball on the Broncos. Expect a ton of passing attempts for Mariota – and therefore a decent chunk of yards, too.
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