The Toronto Blue Jays will have a chance to win the World Series when they host the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 6 on Friday night. Toronto bounced back incredibly well from an 18-inning loss in Game 3 to secure back-to-back victories in Los Angeles on Tuesday and Wednesday. The Jays now take a 3-2 lead north of the border.
With Friday’s showdown set for 8:00 pm ET on FOX, it’s time to break down my SGP. Also don’t forget to check out our Dodgers vs Blue Jays prediction.
Blue Jays ML (+124)
Under 7.5 (-110)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to score a run (+121)
Parlay odds: +625
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Toronto first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scoring a run would obviously work well with a Blue Jays win. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with also backing the under. But even if Guerrero delivers, there is no reason why the under can’t cash. Let’s break down all of the SGP legs.
Blue Jays ML (+124)
Even with Yoshinobu Yamamoto on the mound, the Dodgers may be toast. Their lineup, at least, looks toast. Freddie Freeman, Shohei Ohtani and Will Smith are the only players on L.A.’s active roster who have done anything in the World Series, but even they have cooled off of late. Freeman is 2-for-7 with 4 strikeouts and zero extra-base hits since his walkoff home run in Game 3; Ohtani is 0-for-7 in the last 2 games; Smith is 2-for-14 with 6 Ks and no extra-base hits in the past 3 contests. Now they have to face Blue Jays ace Kevin Gausman. Toronto also has an entirely rested bullpen after Trey Yesavage worked 7.0 innings on Wednesday and then Thursday was an off day for travel from Los Angeles to Toronto. The Jays may not score much in Game 6, but they may not have to.
Under 7.5 (-110)
The combination of ice-cold Dodgers bats and Yamamoto on the mound forecasts a low-scoring game – possibly very low scoring. Yamamoto is on a historic run right now. The right-hander has produced back-to-back complete games in the postseason. He fired 9.0 innings of 1-run baseball against Milwaukee in the NLCS and did the same against Toronto in Game 2 of the Fall Classic. Through 4 playoff appearances, Yamamoto has compiled a 1.57 ERA with a 26-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 28.2 innings. A pitchers’ duel is probably in the cards.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to score a run (+121)
It’s safe to say that Guerrero is hot at the right time. He has homered in each of the last 2 games. In the World Series on the whole, the 26-year-old is 8-for-22 with 2 homers, 3 RBIs and 6 runs scored. Although nobody in Toronto’s lineup did much of anything against Yamamoto in Game 2, Guerrero at least managed to get 1 hit in 4 at-bats. It should also be noted that Guerrero bats 2 places ahead of Alejandro Kirk in the order. With Kirk in outstanding form, there is a great chance that Guerrero not only gets on base but also proceeds to get driven home.
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