After a long and eventful season, the college football regular season is over and conference championship weekend is here. Most of the conference title matchups this weekend have College Football Playoff implications, but none have more of an impact across the national landscape than the ACC title game. On one side, Virginia has the chance to make things straightforward with a win, as the Cavaliers will punch their ticket to the 12-team playoff. However, if Duke ends up springing the upset, all hell could break loose in the selection committee room, and the ACC could potentially get left out of the playoff entirely.
With kickoff set for 8:00 PM ET in Charlotte, North Carolina, an ACC Championship Same Game Parlay is in order. Let’s get into our Duke vs Virginia picks, but don’t forget our NCAAF predictions for every Championship Week matchup.
Virginia -3.5 (-120)
Over 57.5 (-115)
Chandler Morris (UVA) over 251.5 passing yards (-112)
Duke vs Virginia Same Game Parlay odds: +375
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Virginia Cavaliers -3.5 (-120)
To kick off our ACC title game SGP, let’s lay the points with Virginia in Charlotte. We are less than a month removed from a regular season matchup that saw the Cavaliers dominate Virginia, as the Cavaliers limited the Blue Devils to a whopping 42 rushing yards in the process. While the common refrain you’ll surely have heard this week is how difficult it is to beat a team twice in the same season, the historical data doesn’t actually support that claim. With that in mind, I can’t see Duke suddenly figuring out how to slow down the Virginia offense in this one, while simultaneously avoiding mistakes when it has the ball — which is not something the Blue Devils have been able to do this season.
Not only is Duke the inferior team in this game, but the Blue Devils squeaked into this matchup on a unique tiebreaker and ordinarily wouldn’t be in this game in most circumstances. Furthermore, Duke’s defense has been miserable down the stretch, as the Blue Devils have allowed over 33 points per game to its final 6 opponents of the season. Heading into this game, the Blue Devils are well outside the top 100 in success rate and points per drive allowed on the season. When compared to a Virginia defense that ranks inside the top 30 in both success rate and net points per drive allowed, it’s really no contest between these units.
Check out our full Duke vs Virginia predictions for the ACC Championship game
Over 57.5 (-115)
While Virginia has been a team that has upped its intensity on defense in recent weeks, this is still a matchup that lends itself to a higher-scoring affair, and that’s what we should see in Charlotte. While Manny Diaz’s defense can generate pressure and pick up sacks on occasion, this Duke team is still severely lacking in the secondary and it has been gashed in recent weeks by a myriad of ACC competition. On the other side, the Duke offense is certainly capable of putting up points and it all starts through the air thanks to quarterback Darian Mensah and this talented group of pass catchers. Furthermore, the Virginia pass defense is the weakness of this unit, so there should be opportunities for Duke to cash in on explosive plays downfield in this one. The winner of this game likely has to score at least 30 points, so let’s take the over in the ACC title game.
Chandler Morris (UVA) over 251.5 passing yards (-112)
To close out our ACC title game SGP, let’s back Virginia quarterback Chandler Morris to exceed his passing yards prop on Saturday. Morris racked up well over 300 yards through the air in the first meeting between these teams, and given how the Duke defense has performed down the stretch, I don’t expect the Blue Devils to make the necessary adjustments needed to slow down Morris and the Cavaliers passing attack in the rematch. As long as Morris throws the ball 25 or more times on Saturday, I’m fully expecting him to clear this number with relative ease in this one.
Lock in our Georgia vs Alabama Same Game Parlay picks for the SEC Championship
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