Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
Show Bio
Although my name suggests I am a “player prop” specialist, I’d be lying if I said I didn’t bet sides, totals, and NFL futures unrelated to players. My fandom exists for the Los Angeles Rams, but I’m one of the few who can be objective about his own team; they will be bad this year. The NFL is notorious for having surprise teams every season go “worst to first” and the reflexive is just as true. This season the AFC is dominated by the top quarterbacks in the league, making that side of the playoffs very difficult to pin down. On the NFC side, it’s practically wide open outside of Philadelphia, and I have my doubts about Year 2 Brock Purdy.
Let’s take a look at some of my favorite non-player related NFL bets to make this season, and also be sure to check out our NFL futures guide for all of our futures picks.
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AFC South Winner: Jacksonville Jaguars (-155)
Line available at Fanduel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
This could be my favorite non-player prop of the year. I’m putting down 5/6 wins right off the bat for being the AFC South and think Tennessee could possibly steal one of their two matchups. Tampa Bay and Carolina are another two wins I’ve penciled in and now we sit at 7 wins. Here comes the tough part: Jacksonville plays Kansas City, San Francisco, Baltimore, and Cincinnati this season, but all 4 of those are at home. I will be conservative and say they split those games and we’re at 9 wins. What’s the remainder? Falcons at home, Saints on the road, Browns on the road, and Bills on the road. That’s another scenario where I see them splitting those games and we’re at 11 wins. Jacksonville finished the season on a 5-game win streak, including the upset of the Chargers in the WC round. They are my dark horse in the AFC this year with Lawrence getting his second year under Doug Pederson and adding Calvin Ridley to the mix. 2U
Make sure to check out my NFL player award predictions too!
Cleveland Browns to Make the Playoffs (+115)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
The AFC is a dog fight this year, and let’s get the easy ones out of the way: Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, Jacksonville Jaguars are three division winners. The New York Jets, Miami Dolphins, Los Angeles Chargers, Cincinnati Bengals, and Cleveland Browns will fight for 4 other spots (AFC North will be competitive). Cleveland is one of the more well-balanced teams in the NFL and are dominant at the point of attack. I’d make the case that their Offensive and Defensive Lines are both top 5 in the league and that matters heavily to me. Deshaun Watson is the catalyst in Cleveland making the playoffs and will need to return to how he looked in Houston for this best to hit, and I’m on the side that he does.
Defensively, Myles Garrett and Za’Darius Smith are the best 1-2 EDGE punch in the league. Offensively, Nick Chubb, Amari Cooper, Elijah Moore, and David Njoku are the best offensive weapons Watson has ever played with and he should feel safe behind Jedrick Willis, Joel Bitonio, Jack Conklin and Wyatt Teller. They could win the AFC North if Burrow misses time or they could squeak in as a 10-win Wild Card, but I like both on the table at +115. 1U
Green Bay Packers to Make the Playoffs (+180)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
The Packers are not getting enough credit in a division being run with overhype for the Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears. Defensively, they have a lockdown CB1, Rashan Gary off the edge, and a passing defense ranked #6 overall in Opp Passing Yards per Game (197 y/g). Offensively, they are always solid across the line of scrimmage, have a dynamic 1-2 punch in Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon, and a young (but talented) WR room. I think Jordan Love following the traditional approach of sitting behind a veteran for a few years will pay dividends. I’m not expecting any Pro Bowl nods this year, but he will be serviceable at the very least. Schedule wise, it’s middle of the road. Buccaneers, Panthers, Rams, Raiders, and Falcons all seem winnable outside the division. Within the division, I will undershoot at 3-3, but I think that is being conservative. In the NFC, 8-10 wins is a playoff spot. Give me the Packers at nearly 2-1 to overachieve and enjoy this moment flying under the radar. 0.5U
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AFC Conference Winner: New York Jets (+1100)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
No, this has nothing to do with Hard Knocks. This has everything to do with the Jets having a top 5 defense in the league and Aaron Rodgers needing to play slightly above average football for this organization to be successful. When I watched the Jets last season, I was blown away at their defense at every level. Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner are All-Pro pieces that can elevate the play of those around them in Carl Lawson, Jermaine Johnson, Will McDonald, Jonathan Franklin-Myers, and Tony Adams. Offensively, Rodgers has his OC Nathaniel Hackett by his side with a nice mix of veteran pieces in Randall Cobb and Allen Lazard, combined with reigning OROY Garrett Wilson on the perimeter.
The combo of Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook is actually being undersold due to the spotlight being on Rodgers all offseason. They may not win the division, but they will get into the playoffs and by then, Rodgers & Co will be humming. It will likely take a victory in Buffalo or Arrowhead to win the conference, but that’s where I lean on this defense to get it done. Super Teams have had success lately with Los Angeles, Tampa Bay, and Philadelphia showing an “all-in” approach. This is no different to me. 0.5U
NFC Conference Winner: Philadelphia Eagles (+330)
Line available at Fanduel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
It’s not all long-shots from me. I’m rolling with the chalk for the NFC and backing the Philadelphia Eagles in repeat fashion. Offensively, they have an MVP-candidate at quarterback, a top-3 WR duo in the league, the best TE when you include blocking, and a top 2 offensive line. Defensively, they’re a top-5 unit as well, and have only added more talent through this year’s draft. I can’t see a scenario where they don’t make the playoffs barring a major injury and that allows for the possibility of Dallas winning the division (somehow).
The NFC has holes across the board in it’s top teams: Purdy comes into Year 2 hobbled with a solid amount of tape to be reviewed and unrealistic expectations, Seattle needs Geno Smith to follow up the best year of his career, Minnesota won every one score game last season and were everyone’s pick to be bounced immediately in the playoffs, and the Rams are thin on offensive line and defensively will give up 28+ ppg. Two teams that could push for this spot are the New Orleans Saints and Detroit Lions, but none represent the same amount of confidence I have in Philadelphia. This line is as low at +275 in some books, but give me nearly 3.5-1 on an Eagles team getting back to the Super Bowl. 1U
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