F1 2022 Monza Grand Prix odds, picks and betting predictions: Verstappen goes for win No. 11 of season

Max Verstappen drives for Red Bull Racing
Photo of Matt Selz

Matt Selz

F1 · 2 weeks ago

Show Bio

NASCAR handicapper for Pickswise, looking to give you winners throughout the season!

Monza — the Temple of Speed – is the host venue for this weekend’s Formula 1 Pirelli Gran Premio D’Italia 2022. Also known as the Italian Grand Prix, round 16 of the 2022 F1 schedule will put all of the teams to the ultimate speed test with the fastest circuit on the schedule. It’s also fitting that crunch time for Ferrari in both the driver and constructor championship comes at one of their home tracks.

Can they put the bad mojo behind them for a home race even after their truck caught fire heading to the track?

Monza track layout & betting strategies

Monza is a bit of a one-off track in F1. The pure speed and setup of the cars here are unlike basically any other layout on the Formula 1 schedule. It’s a relatively short lap at just under 3.6 miles each time around. While it has 11 “corners,” not all of them are really corners; a few are simply parts of chicanes to get speeds in check. There are two DRS zones on the track to help with overtaking but it could be a bit challenging for most teams to pass. The teams with the best low-downforce setups this season should flourish at Monza. Tracks like Azerbaijan, Canada, Jeddah, Imola and even a bit of Spa can be compared to Monza, although not fully. There are several grid penalties in place this weekend — including both Red Bulls, Lewis Hamilton, Carlos Sainz, Valtteri Bottas and Yuki Tsunoda that will make in-race strategy paramount to hitting winning bets.

F1 Italian Grand Prix outright winners

All odds listed taken from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.

Best bet: Max Verstappen (-160)

Is there any other choice? He has won 10 times this year in 15 races and shows no signs of stopping. Red Bull and Verstappen have been fast regardless of starting spot or track type or length. There’s really no concern here about him taking his foot off the gas even with a massive lead in the F1 title fight…well not much of a fight! Even with the five-spot grid penalty, he should still make it back to the front quite early in the race.

Charles Leclerc (+175)

If there’s any time for a revival to his World Championship hopes, it would be the Italian GP. Right? This track should set up well for Ferrari; aside from being a home race, the speed of the track fits their setup. The trick here is can they avoid the strategy, pit, and reliability issues they have had in nearly every race this year? One bonus for Leclerc in his chances of winning is that Lewis Hamilton will be starting at the back of the gird due to penalties. Leclerc is in win-now mode and desperation can be good for speed.

Sergio Perez (+4000)

We like Red Bull this weekend right? Well, we’re betting his teammate to win and below, spoiler alert, his team to hit a prop. So yeah, seems like we like Red Bull. Checo is part of the reasoning for that. He’s been fast at the lower-downforce, high-speed tracks like Jeddah, Azerbaijan, Imola and Spa. There’s also this: with Verstappen’s lead in the title standings secure, they won’t move Perez out of the way for Verstappen since it helps Red Bull in the constructor standings.

Best prop bets for Italian Grand Prix

Red Bull double podium finish (+120)

What?!?! How? Did DraftKings mess this line up? Verstappen by himself is -450 for a podium finish and Sergio Perez is -190, so why is it plus odds for both to finish in the top three? They have been incredibly fast at this type of track with three double podiums so far this year. Considering Ferrari always seems to mess up and Hamilton is starting at the back of the grid, that’s potentially three cars out of the way for a Red Bull double podium.

Alpine double top-6 finish (+300)

The logic here is simple. Alpines have been very fast in straight-line speed and at some of the lower-downforce tracks like Azerbaijan, they were the fastest on the straights. Both Esteban Ocon and Fernando Alonso have been capable of finishing top six this year separately, as well. This weekend they both have a shot to finish top six if this setup is kind to them once more. If you would prefer a bit more of a safer bet, we can bet them for a double top-10 finish like last week – although that is at minus money.

Aston Martin double top-10 finish (+650)

Like the bet above, this comes down to two drivers who have been capable of finishing top 10 individually this year but maybe haven’t quite put it all together as a team. Aston Martin, like Alpine, has been better at tracks like Canada, Imola, Spa, Azerbaijan and Jeddah – which are all lower downforce tracks. Lance Stroll has finished P11 or better in six of the last seven races and Sebastian Vettel has done that in four of the last six. If they can get both to pull that off on Sunday, a nice return is in store for us.

Charles Leclerc fastest qualifier (+250)

Even with Ferrari’s disasters in strategy and reliability during races, they still have top-end speed to start races. Leclerc has started P1 or P2 11 times in 14 races without a penalty. A home race for the Scuderia and a low-downforce, high-speed circuit should add some boost to Leclerc, as well. He is in win now mode, as we said above, and will want the pole to get the immediate jump on Verstappen.

Our expert F1 handicappers provide race analysis, betting advice and F1 Predictions on every race. Check out our latest F1 Picks today!

Virginia Bonuses

See All
FanDuel Sportsbook


Get a $1,000 No Sweat First Bet

Sign up for a new FanDuel Sportsbook account and make your first deposit of $10+

Place your first bet up to $1,000!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

Must be 21+. First online real money wager only. $10 first deposit required. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable free bets that expire 14 days after receipt. See full terms at fanduel.com/sportsbook.



Bet $5+ on any NFL Pre-Game ML, Get $200 If Your Bet Wins

Sign up for a new account with DraftKings Sportsbook and make your first deposit

Bet $5+ on any NFL pre-game ML

Win $200 if your team wins

Offer valid for new players only. Must be 21 years or older to play. Reward paid in site credit. Full terms available at DraftKings Sportsbook.



Get a $100 Risk-Free Bet!

Register for a new Unibet account & make a deposit

Place your first bet up to $100 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $100

New players only. Terms & conditions apply. 21+. VA only.



Get 4x $200 In Free Bets

Sign up for a new PointsBet account

Bet up to $200 and If you lose, you get a refund

You will receive Free Bet(s) in the amount of the losing wager(s), up to $200 each for four days.

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

Caesars Sportsbook


Get a $1,250 risk-free bet

Sign up for a new Caesars Sportsbook account

Place your first bet of $10 or more

If your first bet loses, you’ll receive a refund up to $1,250 from Caesars in free bets

21+. Terms and conditions apply.



Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet

Register for a new BetMGM & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.



Get Your First Bet Risk-Free Up To $500

Sign up for a new BetRivers account using promo code PICKSWISE

Make your first deposit & get up to $500 in free bets

To get $500 in free bets, wager $500

Must be 21+. Play in IA Only. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-BETS OFF



Bet $5+ on MLB and get $100 in Free Bets Instantly!

Sign up for a new account with DraftKings Sportsbook and make your first deposit

Bet $5+ on any MLB team to win their next game

Win $100 no matter what!

Offer valid for new players only. Must be 21 years or older to play. Reward paid in site credit. Full terms available at DraftKings Sportsbook.



Get 5x $100 in Free Bets With PointsBet's Second Chance

Sign up for a new PointsBet account

Make a bet of up to $100 and receive a refund if you lose

Get this offer once a day for the first 5 days you sign up

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.



Get a $1,000 Deposit Bonus!

Register for a new DraftKings Sportsbook account & deposit

DraftKings will match 20% of your deposit up to $1,000 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $500

21+. Terms & conditions apply.



Get $2,000 in Free Bets

Register for a new PointsBet account & deposit

Receive a free bet refund up to $500 if your first fixed odds bet loses

& a free bet refund up to $1,500 if your first two PointsBetting Wager loses

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

Monkey Knife Fight


Claim Instant Deposit Match up to $100 + Free $5 game

Register for a Monkey Knife Fight account & deposit using promo code PICKSWISE100

Monkey Knife Fight will match your first deposit up to $100

Deposit $100 and you'll get $100 bonus + a free $5 game

18+. Terms and conditions apply. You must live in one of the states where real money DFS is legal.

Yahoo DFS


Get $25 in Site Credit With Yahoo DFS When You Deposit $5!

Register for a new account with Yahoo DFS and deposit $5+

Enter a $5 DFS contest

Upon entry, you will receive a bonus $25 in credit into your account!

21+ and new players only. Full terms available from Yahoo DFS.



Get Your First Single-Horse Win Wager Back Up to $200 if you don't win

Register for a new TVG account and make a deposit

Place your first single horse win-type bet up to $200

If your horse doesn't win you'll get a refund up to $300

21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.



Get a $200 Sign-Up Bonus with Twinspires Racebook!

Open your TwinSpires.com account using offer code BET200

$200 bonus cash will be credited in increments of $100 for every $400 wagered

To earn the full $200 bonus players must wager $800 within 30 days

21+. Terms and conditions apply.