Following a long and eventful college football regular season, the most wonderful time of the year is finally here. The College Football Playoff returns for its second season in the 12-team format, and while there are less games to handicap, we have a trio of exciting matchups to wager on this weekend. The action continues on Saturday with Miami vs Texas A&M, Tulane vs Ole Miss and James Madison vs Oregon to close out the proceedings. Will home teams reign supreme, or will we see the visitors make a statement?
With the College Football Playoff finally upon us, it’s time to get into this Saturday card with my best bets column. We have gotten back on track in the column with a 4-1 mark over the last 2 weeks, so let’s keep that momentum going in bowl season! Let’s take a look at my pair of CFB best bets for Saturday, and you can also find out all of our expert CFB picks for all of the CFP and bowl season action.
CFP best bet: Ole Miss Rebels -17 over Tulane Green Wave (-110)
Odds available at Fanatics Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
This is the second rematch that we’re getting in the opening round of the College Football Playoff, and the first meeting between these teams could be instructive for how this matchup goes on Saturday. Back in September, Ole Miss demolished Tulane in a game that got away from the Green Wave very quickly. Not only did Tulane’s defense struggle mightily to get off the field in that game, but Green Wave quarterback Jake Retzlaff struggled to find any success against an aggressive and hungry Ole Miss defense that played one of its most complete games of the season in that one.
Therefore, even though Lane Kiffin will not be on the sidelines this weekend for the Rebels, it’s hard to see a much different result this time around. After all, it’s not as if the coach on the other side of the ball is coming into this game with a singular focus on the opponent at hand. We know that Jon Sumrall will still remain at head coach in this game for Tulane, but it’s hard to imagine that the new head coach at Florida doesn’t have at least one foot in the door, especially since this has the feel of a really bad matchup for his team.
Putting aside the situational edge for the hosts, the main advantage Ole Miss holds in this game is on offense. As is typical for a Kiffin-led team, the Rebels rank inside the top 10 in both EPA per rush and EPA per pass, while also sitting at 16th in net points per drive on the season (CFB-Graphs). Furthermore, Ole Miss has generated the most quality drives in the country this season, and it will match up well against a Tulane defense that ranks 94th in defensive success rate, despite facing relatively inferior competition compared to what Ole Miss has seen in SEC play. Finally, home field proved to be a massive factor in last season’s playoff games, so let’s back that trend to continue and take Ole Miss to win going away on Saturday.
CFP best bet: James Madison Dukes +21.5 vs Oregon Ducks (-115)
Odds available at Fanatics Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to James Madison +21.
This is the largest spread of any College Football Playoff game in this new 12-team format thus far, and all signs would traditionally point to the Ducks winning big and advancing to the quarterfinals in a few weeks. In all honesty, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Dan Lanning’s team controlled this game from the opening kick and won by 17-20 points. However, even when pricing in an extra point or two for the atmosphere at Autzen Stadium at night in what should be one of the best Oregon crowds in recent memory, I just cant get to this number now that it’s currently sitting above 3 touchdowns.
This is a very difficult game to handicap given the impending coaching turnover on both sides, but I have massive respect for this James Madison coaching staff, and they should have their team ready to play in a game where the Dukes have nothing to lose and are playing with a bit of house money. In its only game against a Power 4 opponent on the road this season, James Madison was tied with Louisville in the 4th quarter and that was long before the Dukes were a finished product on offense. In fact, since Alonza Barnett III became the full-time quarterback, this has been a well-oiled machine (18th in success rate, 28th in EPA per play), albeit an offense that hasn’t faced a defense like what they’ll see against Oregon.
On the other side of the ball, JMU’s defense is flat-out elite, as the Dukes are first in the nation in success rate allowed, to go along with top 10 marks in EPA per play and points per drive allowed. They’ll certainly have their work cut out for them in this game, but the Ducks are still dealing with a number of injuries on offense and it’s not a guarantee that Will Stein’s unit will be at full strength. Furthermore, it’s fair to acknowledge there might be a lack of focus from both Oregon coordinators since they have already accepted other Power 4 head coaching jobs. Given the massive spread at play here, the backdoor could be wide open in the fourth quarter, so let’s roll with James Madison to keep this game within 3 touchdowns.
Get our expert’s full James Madison vs Oregon prediction
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