Luke Lindholm
The FIFA Club World Cup has reached the final four squads, as Fluminense, Chelsea, Paris Saint-Germain and Real Madrid will duke it out for the crown. It was an eventful weekend of soccer, but I’d be remiss not to start today’s piece by paying tribute to Liverpool and Portuguese forward Diogo Jota, who tragically passed away in a road accident this past Thursday. Although the situation is extremely sad, there were a handful of players who dedicated their goals to Jota, as Ousmane Dembélé, Kylian Mbappé and others followed up their scoring by paying tribute to the deceased 28-year-old. It was great to see the entire soccer community coming together after the death of a great player, and more importantly, a great family man.
I imagine more players will pay tribute to Jota as the tournament progresses, and I’m looking forward to these 2 semifinal matchups. The games begin today, as the tournament underdogs, Fluminense, take on Chelsea at MetLife Stadium at 3:00 pm ET. I’ve put together a Fluminense vs Chelsea Same Game Parlay, similar to what I did for the quarterfinals. I pulled off a 9-3 record with my quarterfinal picks, most notably cashing my Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund SGP at +454 odds. I’m now 29-11 with my 2025 FIFA Club World Cup predictions.
If you bet $10 on every pick in my SGPs for the quarterfinals, you would’ve won $28.15 in profits. Additionally, if you bet $10 on each of my 4 SGPs, you would’ve come out with $15.40 in profits for a grand total of $43.55 (💰 $100 bettors would’ve secured $435.50 in profits 💰). So, I’d recommend backing my SGP picks individually, in addition to the SGP itself. OK – enough with math. Let’s dive into my Fluminense vs Chelsea parlay picks for Tuesday’s semifinal. You can fade or follow my picks at a variety of the best soccer betting sites!
Over 5.5 Cards (+124)
Fluminense And Draw (+115)
Under 3.5 Total Goals (-410)
Fluminense vs Chelsea Same Game Parlay odds: +402
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Fluminense vs Chelsea game props: Over 5.5 Cards (+124)
I’m kicking off my SGP with a feisty pick, which is for Tuesday’s quarterfinals to feature 6 cards. Now, it’s worth noting that at FanDuel, a yellow and red card both count as 1 card. However, you can also create this SGP at DraftKings, where a red card counts as 2 cards, but you’ll get shorter odds for your SGP. I’m not expecting any straight red cards. Overall, this game should feature plenty of fouls, as Fluminense currently leads the FIFA Club World Cup with 13 yellow cards, and Chelsea is 3rd with 12. Both of these teams won’t want to give up an inch, so if there’s an opportunity to break up a counterattack or slow the opposition, both teams will commit the foul.
Chelsea recorded 3 yellow cards in both of their knockout games thus far, while Fluminense picked up 5 yellow cards against Inter Milan in the Round of 16 and 3 against Al-Hilal. The Brazilian side has at least 1 card in every game at the FIFA Club World Cup, and Chelsea has 3 yellow cards in 4 of their 5 games at this tournament. With a chance to make the final on the line, I’m expecting this game to be extremely tight and feature plenty of fouls, which is why I’m expecting at least 6 cards on Tuesday.
Read our full Fluminense vs Chelsea prediction
Fluminense vs Chelsea best bet: Fluminense and Draw (+115)
My second prediction is that Fluminense will eliminate Chelsea in regulation or force extra time. The Brazilians are easily the biggest underdogs remaining, as they currently carry a +1400 price to win the tournament at DraftKings Sportsbook. They were underdogs against Inter and Al-Hilal, but I backed them to advance against the Saudi Arabian squad. It’s hard to ignore how good their defense has played, and Chelsea will be well aware of the quality they’ll be going up against in a Thiago Silva-led back four. The Brazilian legend spent 4 seasons playing for the Blues and has looked every bit like his former self, even though he’s now 40.
Chelsea did well to advance past Palmeiras, but they needed an 83rd-minute own goal to get past the Brazilian side. Additionally, Fluminense’s back four is better than Palmeiras’, as they’ve allowed 1 goal or fewer in 9 of their previous 10 matches in all competitions. I expect the Brazilian side to set up a low block, and it will take a moment of magic for Chelsea to find the back of the net. Cole Palmer played his best game of the tournament against Palmeiras, so I expect Fluminense to key in on him, and someone else will have to step up for the English side. The Brazilians haven’t lost at this tournament, and I don’t expect that to change, as they will make things extremely difficult for Chelsea in this semifinal.
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Fluminense vs Chelsea over/under prediction: Under 3.5 Total Goals (-410)
The final pick in my Fluminense vs Chelsea same game parlay goes hand in hand with my first 2 picks. I’ve talked about this at length in my previews for the knockout stage, but these games tend to be low-scoring. 3 of the 4 quarterfinal matchups featured 3 goals or fewer, and the only game that went over was Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund, which saw 3 goals in stoppage time of the second half! It’s safe to say that neither squad will want to take too many risks in the first half, and I can’t see more than 3 goals in this one.
19 of Fluminense’s 22 matches this season have featured fewer than 4 goals, and their 5 games at the FIFA Club World Cup have averaged just 2.2 goals. On the flip side, Chelsea’s 5 games have averaged just 2.8 goals per game during regulation, and Enzo Maresca has guided his team to play in games with 4 goals or less in 8 of their last 10 contests dating back to last season. Expect Tuesday’s game to be low-scoring, which is why I’m tacking on Under 3.5 goals to push this SGP to +402 odds.
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