Ricky Dimon
It is women’s semifinal day at the French Open on Thursday, June 5. Lois Boisson has shocked the tennis world and thrilled the French crowd with an improbable run, which she will try to extend against Coco Gauff. In the top half of the draw, it’s a much more expected matchup: Aryna Sabalenka vs Iga Swiatek. Let’s take a look at my French Open best bets on the Day 12 schedule.
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Aryna Sabalenka -2.5 aces vs Iga Swiatek (+100)
When you crunch the numbers, it becomes clear that this is a great bet. In 12 head-to-head matches against each other, Swiatek has struck just 13 aces. Sabalenka has hit 49. In 6 H2H clay-court encounters, Swiatek is averaging fewer than 1 ace per match (5). Through 5 rounds so far this fortnight, the Belarusian has fired 25 aces compared to Swiatek’s 9. Any way you slice it, Sabalenka is averaging far more aces per game, set and match. This blockbuster matchup promises to produce a long, competitive contest on Thursday. After all, Sabalenka is the best player in the world and Swiatek is the best clay-court player in the world. Anything less than an epic 3-setter would be a disappointment. The longer it goes, the more time Sabalenka has to hit more aces.
Coco Gauff -1.5 sets over Lois Boisson (-150)
Who?! Well, here’s the answer: Boisson is a 22-year-old Frenchwoman ranked #361 in the world, playing…wait for it…just the 2nd tournament of her career at the main-tour level. Grand Slam runs don’t come any more shocking than this. Boisson upset Jessica Pegula in 3 sets on Monday and then stunned Mirra Andreeva in 2 tight sets on Wednesday. If the underdog had a day off, she might have a remote chance of making this competitive. But she doesn’t. And it’s never easy for any tennis player to follow up the biggest win of his or her career just 24 hours later.
Gauff played a 3-setter against Madison Keys in the quarters, but bouncing back mentally and physically from that effort should be no problem for a woman who is a Grand Slam champion (US Open 2023) and a former Roland Garros runner-up. Stranger things have happened (have they?!), but you have to think this is where the clock strikes midnight for Boisson.
