Ricky Dimon
Second-round competition at the French Open will conclude on Thursday, when Jannik Sinner, Novak Djokovic, Alexander Zverev, Coco Gauff and Mirra Andreeva take the court. Sinner has company among the Italian contingent, too, as a showdown between compatriots will see Flavio Cobolli face Matteo Arnaldi. That matchup is among my French Open best bets for Thursday. Let’s take a look at all of my favorite plays on the Day 5 schedule.
Parlay: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro ML over Robin Montgomery and Paula Badosa ML over Elena Gabriela Ruse (-121)
Jessica Bouzas Maneiro going up against Robin Montgomery is simply a clay-court mismatch. The underdog American would probably have a chance on any other surface, but it will likely be 1-way traffic on dirt. JBM has won 148 matches in her career on clay; in the exact same time span (they both turned pro in 2019), Montgomery has won 30 such matches.
Meanwhile, when Paula Badosa is healthy, she is among the best players in the world. In fact, the Spaniard is ranked #10 right now even though she has missed a fair amount of time over the past 12 months due to injury. The marquee matchup of the entire French Open first round was Badosa vs Naomi Osaka, and it certainly lived up to the billing. Badosa won a high-quality thriller in 3 sets. With momentum in hand, her next match against Elena Gabriela should not be as difficult.
Tallon Griekspoor ML over Gabriel Diallo (-155)
Tallon Griekspoor has been in fantastic form. It’s a mystery how this guy has not climbed high enough in the rankings to be seeded at Grand Slams (currently No. 35 in the world), but his draw has opened up thanks to Francisco Cerundolo’s ouster at the hands of Gabriel Diallo. That was an awesome win for the Canadian, but it’s never easy to back up such a result in the very next round. Diallo has won 17 matches in his career; Griekspoor has won 167. Obviously age has a lot to do with it (Diallo is 23 years old and Griekspoor is 28), but the discrepancy in experience on this surface is massive. The Dutchman should be an even bigger favorite.
Flavio Cobolli vs Matteo Arnaldi Over 38.5 games (-110)
This could easily be a matchup in the second week of any Grand Slam, but in this case, it’s in the second round. Matteo Arnaldi leads the head-to-head series 3-1, so he has that going for him. However, current form favors Flavio Cobolli. The world #26 has already captured 2 titles on this clay-court swing, triumphing in Bucharest and this past weekend in Hamburg. Cobolli may be a bit fatigued on the heels of Hamburg, but Arnaldi is coming off a 5-setter against Felix Auger-Aliassime on Tuesday. Not only physically, but also mentally this will be a tough challenge for each Italian. I can’t see either one winning with ease. A 5-setter is likely, and even a 4-setter has a good chance to exceed a very modest 38.5 number.
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