The stars will be out in force over the next fortnight on the PGA Tour, starting with the Arnold Palmer Invitational at the home of the King, Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Florida. Attention will then switch to the Players Championship and iconic TPC Sawgrass, but the Signature Arnold Palmer is a valuable prize in its own right, as evidenced by a field featuring Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy and a host of other big names.
Bay Hill, a typical Florida course with water in play on the vast majority of holes, has huge greens, but they rank consistently among the most difficult to hit on the PGA Tour each season, and finding them with regularity tends to equate to success. Let’s dive into my golf predictions for this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational.
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Arnold Palmer Invitational golf picks and predictions
Arnold Palmer Invitational best bet: Rory McIlroy (+1000)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook and bet365 at time of publishing.
Most players would be happy with form figures of 3-4-12 and $1.7 million in earnings from their last 3 starts, but Scheffler is not most players. If he avoids another slow start, he’s obviously a massive contender, but odds of +300 reflect his chances. At three times the price, Rory McIlroy looks a better investment.
McIlroy’s putter deserted him at the Genesis Invitational, where he was a runner-up behind Jacob Bridgeman last time out, but his performance from tee to green, particularly with his irons, was full of promise with the Florida Swing in mind. The Northern Irishman, who switched back to blades after a brief experiment with cavity back irons, is supremely comfortable in the Sunshine State, including at Bay Hill, where he was a champion in 2018 as part of 6 top-10 finishes. He has never finished outside the top 30 in 11 appearances.
McIlroy tops the PGA Tour strokes-gained: approach statistics this season and ranks 7th in greens in regulation, and a similar performance will surely see him contend for a 2nd Arnold Palmer title.
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Arnold Palmer Invitational prediction: Matt Fitzpatrick (+2600)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Europeans have a fine record at Bay Hill and Matt Fitzpatrick could continue that further. Fitzpatrick, who finished last year with victory in the DP World Tour Championship, had form figures of 2-9-10-9-14 in the Arnold Palmer from 2019 to 2023, and last year’s 22nd-place finish came when his game was in a terrible state. He has started this year in much more promising fashion, finishing 9th at the Phoenix Open, 14th at Pebble Beach and 24th at the Genesis, and he will have had this week circled in the calendar for a while.
Arnold Palmer Invitational pick: Sepp Straka (+6800)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Sepp Straka rounds off our European trio and also catches the eye. Straka’s PGA Tour breakthrough came in Florida at the 2022 Honda Classic and he appeared to have figured out Bay Hill last year, finishing in a share of 5th place behind Russell Henley. The Austrian is a Signature Event winner who was a runner-up at Pebble Beach on his penultimate start. He is inconsistent, but that has been factored into his price.
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