Chris Gotterup landed his 2nd win of the PGA Tour season at the Phoenix Open on Sunday — overcoming Hideki Matsuyama in a playoff — and the American will like his chances of triumphing on his AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am debut this week. Heading to California at a career-high 5th in the world rankings, the 26-year-old has taken some of the attention away from world #1 Scottie Scheffler and defending Pebble Beach champion Rory McIlroy, who are both teeing it up in the Golden State. That trio are part of an 80-player field taking part in the first Signature Event of the season, which has no cut, and will see Spyglass Hill Golf Course and Pebble Beach Golf Links played in rotation over the first 2 rounds before the remaining 36 holes are played at the latter.
Scheffler showed his first real frailties of the campaign at the Phoenix Open on Thursday as he carded a two-over-par 73, and while he blitzed his way through the field over the next 54 holes, that opening round proved to be costly as he missed out on a playoff by a single stroke. The 29-year-old cannot afford another slow start in California in a field oozing with world-class quality, and having shown he is human and can make mistakes, he is worth opposing at such short odds given the amount of talent on show. Let’s dive into my golf predictions for this week’s American Express.
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AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am golf picks and predictions
Pebble Beach Pro-Am best bet: Russell Henley (+3100)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Several players will like their chances of success but the one to beat could be world #6 Russell Henley, who has started the year with a T19 result at the Sony Open in Hawaii and a tied-8th at The American Express. The 36-year-old has had 6 cracks at this tournament and he recorded his best effort last year when landing a top-5 finish — 4 shots behind winner McIlroy — while he was the leading amateur in the 2010 US Open at Pebble Beach when tied-16th.
Henley’s affinity for links golf has aided his cause at this coastal course, which can be heavily impacted by the weather, with his last 2 Open appearances producing a 5th-placed effort in 2024 and a tied-10th finish the following year. Being able to hit the small greens at Pebble Beach has proven to be essential to success and Henley’s approach play has been razor-sharp, as he ranks 18th in greens in regulation and 5th in strokes gained approach.
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Pebble Beach Pro-Am prediction: Justin Rose (+3000)
Odds available at bet365 at time of publishing.
Another player to keep on side this week is 45-year-old Justin Rose, who showed age is just a number when winning the Farmers Insurance Open for the 2nd time at the beginning of this month. The Englishman now finds himself 3rd in the world — his highest position since the 2019 US Open — and he will feel confident of landing his 14th PGA Tour title at an event he won in 2023.
Rose was tied-11th on his defense 12 months later before then sharing 3rd place with Lucas Glover last year, and it’s no surprise to see the European Ryder Cup stalwart perform so well here, given he is a 2-time runner-up at the British Open. Sitting 3rd in greens in regulation and 7th in putting average, another metric that has aided success in this event, Rose looks capable of making it back-to-back wins on the US circuit.
Pebble Beach Pro-Am longshot pick: Jason Day (+4700)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
While yet to win this tournament, Jason Day has a stellar record here, having finished tied-2nd in 2018 and added a further 4 top-5s and 4 top-10s to his resume. The 38-year-old has ended up outside the top-15 places in just 3 of his 15 attempts and he has already come close to winning this season, when ending up 2nd behind Scheffler at The American Express. Expect another big showing from the Aussie.
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