Joe Champion
Justin Rose has vaulted into the top 4 of the FedEx Cup points list after a gutsy playoff triumph at the FedEx St. Jude Championship on Sunday, and the evergreen Englishman will attempt to double up in the BMW Championship in Maryland this week. The top 70 at the conclusion of the regular season have become a top 50 following last week’s event at TPC Southwind, and this time all eligible participants tee it up at Caves Valley Golf Club on Thursday, with Rory McIlroy taking his place in the field. Let’s dive into my golf predictions for this week’s BMW Championship.
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BMW Championship golf picks and predictions
BMW Championship best bet: Rory McIlroy (+700)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Caves Valley has hosted the nomadic BMW Championship on one previous occasion — the 2021 edition of the tournament in which Patrick Cantlay outdueled Bryson DeChambeau in an epic 6-hole playoff. The Tom Fazio-designed course proved easy for the PGA Tour elite 4 years ago, with the 2 playoff combatants reaching 27 under par in regulation, and while the Maryland venue should be tougher this time around, a double-digit under-par score should still be required.
Scottie Scheffler takes his customary place as market leader, but it’s McIlroy who catches the eye, having taken the decision to skip the St. Jude — a move which could prove a masterstroke both this week and at the Tour Championship at East Lake next week. Already assured of a spot in the top 30, the pressure is off for McIlroy, and there’s no doubt that he’s an excellent fit for Caves Valley, a long course where driving distance and putting are likely to prove the routes to success. While he’s not always been a great putter, McIlroy has had an impressive year with putter in hand, ranking 4th in strokes-gained on the green and 3rd among those in this field.
Despite an underwhelming few months since his emotionally draining Masters win, McIlroy has played well in recent starts, finishing 6th at the Travelers Championship, 2nd at the Scottish Open and 7th in the British Open. McIlroy was no match for Scheffler and his red-hot putter at Royal Portrush, but he has a long-held affinity for courses designed or redesigned by Fazio. He is a 4-time champion at Quail Hollow and he won the 2022 CJ Cup at Congaree, while he was also 4th in the 2021 BMW Championship at this venue.
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BMW Championship prediction: Ludvig Aberg (+2500)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
With long drivers expected to come to the fore, Ludvig Aberg could make his class count. Aberg hasn’t kicked on since winning the Genesis Invitational at Torrey Pines in February, but he’s been steady in recent starts, finishing 8th in Scotland, 23rd at the British Open and 9th last week. A rain-softened Caves Valley should prove right up his street. He was 2nd in the BMW at a different venue, Castle Pines, last year, and has Fazio form in the book — his first PGA Tour win came at Sea Island in the 2023 RSM Classic.
BMW Championship pick: Cameron Young (+3000)
Odds generally available at time of publishing.
Cameron Young was a brilliant winner of the Wyndham Championship and followed that up by driving the ball better than anyone when 5th at Southwind last week. He’s full of confidence and won’t want to let up with a potential spot in the US Ryder Cup team on the line.
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