Ricky Dimon
Sunday Night Football in Week 4 of the NFL season pits the Green Bay Packers against the Dallas Cowboys. It’s the Micah Parsons Bowl. Yes, arguably the best defensive player in the game is heading back to Dallas to face his former team. The Packers come in with a 2-1 record, while the Cowboys are 1-2 with nothing more than an overtime victory over a winless New York Giants squad.
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which get underway at 8:20 pm ET on NBC. Also be sure to check out our full Packers vs Cowboys predictions.
Packers -6.5 (-115)
Jordan Love Over 1.5 passing touchdowns(-136)
Dak Prescott to throw for 250+ yards (+122)
Parlay odds: +518
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love throwing a couple of touchdown passes would obviously work well with a Packers win and cover. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with backing Dallas QB Dak Prescott to throw for his fair share of yards. But even if he does, there is no reason why the visitors can’t take care of business. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
Packers -6.5 (-115)
Quite simply, the Cowboys stink. They lost to the Chicago Bears by 17 points last week and needed overtime to beat the lowly Giants at home. Chicago produced 31 points and 385 yards of total offense, including 10.6 yards per pass while completely controlling the pace play. There is no denying that Green Bay underwhelmed in a setback at the Cleveland Browns this past Sunday, but that was a natural letdown spot following 2 season-opening wins. Needless to say, Parsons and company will have no trouble getting up for this primetime showdown against a much more marquee opponent (in stature, not on paper). Despite the loss, Green Bay’s defense once again impressed – holding Cleveland to 221 total yards. The visitors just need their offense to get back on track – and that should not be difficult against a porous Dallas defense.
Jordan Love Over 1.5 passing touchdowns(-136)
The Cowboys’ defense is atrocious. They are #30 in the NFL overall, allowing 397.7 yards per contest. It’s no surprise of course. Dallas was #28 last season and then got worse by losing Parsons. What’s also as expected is that the Cowboys are dead last through 3 weeks in passing defense, giving up 288.0 yards per game. They have surrendered 7 touchdowns via the airwaves, tied for the second most league wide (only Chicago has yielded more). Love has thrown for multiple touchdowns in 2 of 3 outings so far this year, only failing to do so against Cleveland. The Browns can play defense; the Cowboys can’t. Count on Love bouncing back in a big way from last weekend’s pedestrian performance.
Dak Prescott to throw for 250+ yards (+122)
I’m not worried at all about Prescott having a big game and perhaps having it result in a Dallas victory. In fact, it probably means Dallas is getting blown out if its QB is throwing for a bunch of yards. Playing from behind is the recipe for quarterbacks to produce relatively meaningless yardage totals. Consider last season when Prescott was healthy, for example. In 3 of the 5 losses he took, the Mississippi State product finished with 293, 379 and 243 yards. Just this past weekend the Cowboys scored only 14 points in a lopsided loss at Chicago and Prescott still threw for 251 yards. He doesn’t even have to play particularly well on Sunday night – he should reach this threshold by default.
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