Sunday Night Football in Week 8 of the NFL season is the Aaron Rodgers Bowl between the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers. This is a must-see matchup – and not just because Rodgers is going up against his former team. Green Bay is sitting pretty at 4-1-1 through 7 weeks, while Pittsburgh comes in with a 4-2 record.
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which get underway at 8:20 pm ET on NBC. Also be sure to check out our full Packers vs Steelers predictions.
Packers -3 (-105)
Under 45.5 (-105)
Tucker Kraft to score a touchdown (+135)
Parlay odds: +850
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Green Bay tight end Tucker Kraft finding the endzone would obviously work well with a Packers win and cover. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with also backing the under. But even if Kraft does score, there is no reason why the under can’t cash. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
Packers -3 (-105)
Even at 4-2, I’m not a big believer in the Steelers – and I don’t think I’m alone. Aaron Rodgers is 41 years old and their defense just gave up 33 points to Joe Flacco and the Bengals. In other words, it’s hard to trust either side of the football. There’s no doubt that this team is decent, but “decent” is not good enough to beat the Packers. Green Bay lost 13-10 at Cleveland in Week 3, but clearly that is an aberration as opposed to the rule. Its only other blemish is a tie at Dallas. The Pack have since taken care of Cincinnati and Arizona, so they head into this one with plenty of momentum. I think Rodgers will make enough mistakes in trying to beat his former team that the visitors will prevail by more than a field goal.
Under 45.5 (-105)
Two of the best defensive players will be on display in this one – Micah Parsons of the Packers and T.J. Watt of the Steelers. Parsons is coming off a monster performance against Arizona with 3 sacks, 4 tackles for a loss and 5 quarterback hits. I’m counting on Pittsburgh to play with some pride and make up for its defensive failure against Cincinnati. This should be a more favorable matchup for the home team, as Green Bay is #22 league wide in yards per rush (4.0) and is #30 in pass-play percentage. When the Packers do pass, they will be dealing with a defense that is #6 in sack rate. The last time head coach Matt LaFleur’s club faced an elite pass rush, Love was sacked 5 times by Cleveland. Cold and rain in the forecast will not help either offense on Sunday night.
Tucker Kraft to score a touchdown (+135)
Pittsburgh is giving up 258.8 passing yards per game, more than every other team in the NFL except Dallas. Based on that number, it is no surprise that the Steelers are extremely generous when it comes to defending tight ends. They are allowing the third-most fantasy points to that position through 7 weeks. Kraft should be more than capable of taking advantage on Sunday Night Football. The third-round pick out of South Dakota State has been outstanding so far this season. He has made 23 receptions on 32 targets for 326 yards and 4 touchdowns. Kraft is a red-zone machine. Even in the 2 games in which he caught only 2 passes, he scored on both occasions. Kraft has found the endzone in 2 consecutive contests after recording 5 catches on 10 targets for 58 yards and a TD during last weekend’s win over Arizona.
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