Horse Racing picks for Keeneland on Saturday, October 29: Last Samurai can fight off rivals

Jockey Samy Camacho atop Mattys Express

There is plenty of great horse racing across America on Saturday, including at Keeneland race track. We have been on fire with our picks for a long time now and are up +269.84 units with our race selections to our recommended stakes dating back to August 5, 2021. Let’s keep it rolling!

Here are our best bets for today’s action at Keeneland race track.

4:12 pm ET Keeneland (Race 7) – Cape Trafalgar 3/1 (2-star play)

Race 7 at Keeneland is a $100,000 Maiden Special Weight for 3-year-olds and upward over an extended 6 furlongs on the dirt and I like Cape Trafalgar, who has finished 3rd and 2nd in his last 2 starts at Keeneland.

Both of those outings came over trips further than this and it looks as though he has been crying out for a sprint trip, so with that in mind he should go well under Luis Saez, who rides him for the first time.

4:44 pm ET Keeneland (Race 8) – Stolen Base 20/1 (1-star play)

There are some lovely 3-year-olds going to post for this hotly contested Grade 3 Bryan Station Stakes. One who can go well at decent odds is the Michael Maker-trained Stolen Base. who was 2nd in a Grade 2 race at Keeneland last season.

I think he has been overlooked as he’s a Grade 2 winner and has that good course form behind Tiz The Bomb in the book. so it would not be a surprise should he show up well at big odds.

5:16 pm ET Keeneland (Race 9) – Last Samurai 6/1 (1-star play)

The penultimate contest at Keeneland features a field of 6 for the Grade 2 Hagyard Fayette Stakes over a 9-furlong trip with the Claude McGaughey III-trained First Captain looking like he will be tough to beat. However, Last Samurai can give him a fight.

This son of Malibu Moon is an Oaklawn Handicap winner and is seen at his best over this trip, so I like his chances in this small field.

5:48 pm ET Keeneland (Race 10) – Illegal Smile 8/5 (2-star play)

Wesley Ward’s Illegal Smile comes into this allowance having already won twice in this grade and she’ll appreciate this drop in class having contested stakes events on her last 2 starts, so the other 12 females in this have their work cut out to beat her in the finale.

Her win over course and distance in April was comfortable, so I see no reason why she shouldn’t win this as she remains in good form.


Late Pick 4

Race 7: 4, 9, 11
Race 8: 2, 5, 11
Race 9: 4, 6
Race 10: 1, 6

Stake: $0.50
Total stake: $18

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