Christmas week continues with a pair of Saturday specials in the NFL, including an AFC battle between the Houston Texans and Los Angeles Chargers. The Chargers are in the playoffs and the Texans are looking to join them, so this is a huge Week 17 matchup.
I have been cashing Same Game Parlays left and right throughout the 2025 season, including 2 of my 4 efforts during Week 16 (+650 in Packers vs Bears and +600 in 49ers vs Colts). I also nailed both of my player prop bets for Cowboys vs Commanders on Thursday. Let’s keep the momentum rolling with my SGP for this 4:30 pm ET kickoff. Also be sure to check out our full Texans vs Chargers predictions.
Texans ML (+105)
Under 39.5 (-112)
Woody Marks to record 60+ rushing yards (+160)
Parlay odds: +675
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Houston running back Woody Marks racking up his fair share of yards would obviously work well with a Texans victory. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with also the under. But even if Marks fares well, there is no reason why the under can’t cash. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
Texans ML (+105)
Houston will be trying to extend its winning streak to 8 games. It has been no kind of fluke, either. Included in the 7 wins are defeats of Jacksonville, Buffalo, Indianapolis and Kansas City – when K.C. still had Patrick Mahomes on the field. The Texans are simply rolling right now behind the best defense in football. Although the Texans have won 4 straight of their own, they have not been overly impressive. They scraped past the Eagles 22-19 in overtime and barely beat the Chiefs 16-13 after Mahomes tore his ACL. Aside from when it faced some of the league’s most porous defenses in Dallas and Las Vegas, L.A.’s offense has been poor dating back to a 35-6 embarrassment against Jacksonville in Week 11. It’s hard to see the home side doing much offensively against this scary Houston defense. Justin Herbert and company having their way with this Houston defense.
Under 39.5 (-112)
Just how good are the Texans on the defensive side of the ball? They are #1 overall (272.3 yards allowed per game), #1 in scoring (16.6 ppg allowed), #4 against the pass, #2 in yards per pass attempt allowed, #4 against the run, #3 in turnovers forced and tied for #6 in sacks. Fortunately for the Chargers, their defense also comes to play more often than not. They are #3 overall, #6 against the pass, #6 in turnovers forced and tied with Houston for #6 in sacks. No opponent has even reached the 20-point mark against them since Week 11. Meanwhile, the Texans have scored more than 23 points only once since Week 10. This is a rematch of a 2024 wild-card game in which Houston held L.A. to just 12 points on its way to the divisional round.
Woody Marks to record 60+ rushing yards (+160)
What has been the winning formula for Houston during this hot streak? Building leads with a dominant defense and then working the clock with a ball-control offense. Marks is a big part of that plan. The rookie out of USC has rushed for at least 64 yards in 3 of the last 4 games and for at least 62 yards in 5 of the last 8. Marks got 26 carries during a Week 15 victory over Kansas City and has rushed 16 times or more in 4 of the past 5 contests. He now faces a Los Angeles defense that is allowing a sizable 4.4 yards per carry. By comparison, the Bolts are #6 in the NFL in pass defense and also #6 in yards per pass attempt allowed.
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