The ACC Championship kicks off at the same time as the Big Ten Championship, and while Duke vs. Virginia may carry the most intrigue as to who fills out the College Football Playoff, there’s no debate as to which game headlines Saturday’s conference championship action. When the Indiana Hoosiers and the Ohio State Buckeyes take the field at Lucas Oil Stadium, it will be a battle of the only undefeated teams in the country. Both teams have likely locked up a first-round bye in the CFP, so this one is purely to award a Big Ten Champion and find out who enters the postseason race as the #1 and lone undefeated team in the country.
The ball will fly at 8:00 pm ET, and the game will be aired on FOX with Gus Johnson and Joel Klatt on the call. Ahead of the action, here are my favorite picks for Indiana vs. Ohio State, combined together in a Big Ten Championship Same Game Parlay courtesy of bet365. Don’t forget to find our NCAAF predictions for the rest of your conference championship action leading right into bowl season.
Indiana 1H +3 (-120)
Carnell Tate (OSU) anytime TD (-125)
Jeremiah Smith (OSU) 6+ receptions (-150)
Big Ten Championship Same Game Parlay odds: +525
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Indiana Hoosiers 1H +3 over Ohio State Buckeyes (-120)
Coming off such an emotional win over their arch-rival Michigan for the first time since 2019, it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Buckeyes come out a bit flat on Saturday. I highlighted prior to The Game just how much it meant to Ohio State to make a statement in Ann Arbor last week, as the thought of losing last year at home as 3-score favorites lingered around that program despite going on to win a national title. We cashed in on that motivational edge last week, but I’m going to use it against the Buckeyes this week – especially because this game means very little in the overall picture of repeating as national champs. A conference title should still be celebrated as long as we have these championship games, but that’s not the end goal for these teams. Both aspire to be crowned national champions in just over a month.
For as good as Ohio State has been in almost every metric on both sides of the ball, Indiana has been right on its heels. Like the Buckeyes, the Hoosiers are top-25 in almost every key offensive metric both on the season and over the last 5 weeks, and it’s much of the same on the defensive side – where they are top-10 in most metrics across the board outside of a couple select areas that I’ll touch on later. On top of that, The Hoosiers have the best win of the two resumes combined after beating Oregon in Eugene earlier this season, proving they can win a big game in a hostile environment – though Lucas Oil Stadium should be close to evenly split being right in Indiana’s back yard.
Look for Curt Cignetti to use last year’s 38-15 loss at Ohio Stadium – Indiana’s only regular-season loss in his tenure – to fuel his Hoosiers out of the gate and keep it close leading into halftime.
Find our full Indiana vs Ohio State prediction for picks on the side and total of the Big Ten Championship
Carnell Tate (OSU) Anytime Touchdown (-125)
Though I like Indiana to at least keep it close early, I find Carnell Tate to be one of the better touchdown-prop targets in the Big Ten Championship. When healthy, Tate has capitalized on the opportunity to play alongside Jeremiah Smith, who most defenses have to be mindful of at all times. As such, Tate has developed into the downfield threat in this offense, evidenced by his higher yards per reception and average depth of target compared to Smith. He has also been much better than Smith on contested catches this year, which only helps when it comes to grabbing a touchdown pass.
Tate has scored 4 times in his last 3 games played. In fact, he’s only failed to score twice this season. I like for that streak to continue against Indiana, whose Achilles heel is the secondary.
Jeremiah Smith (OSU) 6+ Receptions (-150)
Again I’m going against the grain of the Indiana first-half pick, but as I hinted at before, Indiana can be thrown on. The Hoosiers are 79th and 84th in passing downs PPA and PPA per pass, respectively, over the last 5 weeks, which could end up biting them when this one is all said and done. In controlled conditions indoors at Lucas Oil Stadium in what projects to be a close game, OSU QB Julian Sayin should have a much easier time operating as a passer than last week in the wintry conditions of Ann Arbor. Of course, both Tate and Smith benefit from that.
Smith has just 7 combined receptions over his last two appearances, but he left the UCLA game early with an injury and the wintry conditions combined with a multiple-possession lead over Michigan suppressed his usage last week. That may present a tiny bit of value on this prop, as Smith has reeled in at least 6 passes in 7 of his other 9 games. In the 2 games he fell short of that mark, he had 5 receptions despite the blowout nature of matchups against both Grambling and Illinois. Assuming this one remains close at least for 3 quarters, Smith should have a full allotment of usage on Saturday night.
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