James Madison vs Oregon: CFP Prediction & Parlay Picks

The fourth and final College Football Playoff first-round matchup will take place in primetime on Saturday night out in Eugene when the Sun Belt Champions in the James Madison Dukes meet the Oregon Ducks of the Big Ten. The action kicks off at 7:30 pm ET on TNT, and the winner will advance to meet the Big 12 Champion Texas Tech Red Raiders in the Capital One Orange Bowl on New Year’s Day. To get you set for this playoff showdown, I put together a James Madison vs. Oregon Same Game Parlay courtesy of bet365. Let’s break down each pick before you head over to our NCAAF predictions for the rest of our tips and picks on EVERY bowl and playoff game. 

James Madison +21 (-115)

Braeden Wisloski (JMU) anytime TD (+450)

James Madison vs. Oregon Same Game Parlay odds: +800

James Madison Dukes +21 over Oregon Ducks (-115)

The Sun Belt Champs slid their way into the College Football Playoff thanks to the odd happenings in the ACC and due to the rule that states the 5 highest-rated conference champions earn an automatic bid into the postseason tournament. Because Duke won the ACC at just 8-5, James Madison finished ahead of the ACC Champions and punched its ticket into the playoff. As their reward, the Dukes head out to Eugene to play the Ducks, and everyone is counting them out – including oddsmakers. JMU is catching 3 touchdowns on the spread in what projects to be a low-scoring affair. In fact, the market really thinks this will be low-scoring, as the total has plummeted from the low-50s to the mid-40s throughout the week.

Will James Madison spring the upset? Most would say it’s unlikely. However, the Dukes should have enough to keep this game within the number. Right off the bat, grabbing the points with an underdog in a projected low-scoring game is always valuable – especially when it’s this many points in a matchup between two methodical offenses. Oregon and James Madison are both outside the top 100 in seconds per play this season, and they both are top-40 in rush rate outside of garbage time since Week 9. In other words, possessions may be at a premium in this game with a running clock. Both teams are particularly efficient on standard downs as well – boasting top-20 marks since the end of October – which means the Dukes and the Ducks should be in good position to extend drives on third downs. 

On the other side of the ball, JMU and Oregon are top-7 in yards per play allowed this season. More recently, they both rank top-15 in PPA per play allowed since Week 9. Obviously, there’s a massive strength-of-schedule between these teams, but James Madison did perform admirably in its one step-up game this season when it took a 14-14 stalemate into the 4th quarter at Louisville before eventually losing 28-14. Yes, Oregon is much better than Louisville, but are the Ducks that motivated to win this game by extreme margin with as many as 3 more games on deck? I’m not so sure. 

Find our full James Madison vs Oregon prediction for picks on side and total of this College Football Playoff matchup

Braeden Wisloski (JMU) anytime TD (+450)

Oregon has not surrendered a rushing touchdown to a running back since its trip out to Rutgers back in Week 8, and the Ducks have seen some talented Big Ten running backs since then. They also are very good at limiting mobile quarterbacks, so if James Madison is going to find success offensively, it must come through the air. Oregon is by far the best defensive team the Dukes will have seen all year, and while the Ducks are pretty much elite at limiting red-zone opportunities, they are not so good once opponents get there. In fact, Oregon is 126th in red-zone scoring allowed – surrendering 18 touchdowns on 24 red-zone trips. If the Dukes – and that’s potentially a big if – are able to get into the red zone, they will have as good a chance as any to find pay dirt. Scoring touchdowns in the red zone is no stranger to this squad, as the Dukes are 23rd in red-zone touchdown rate this season.

Due to the bad matchup for JMU’s running backs, I’m going with the Dukes’ hottest receiver to find the end zone at a very juicy number. Braeden Wisloski doesn’t draw many targets, but he has been highly efficient with his touches of late. His 4 receiving touchdowns since the beginning of November pace the team despite just 9 total receptions in that span. The junior WR spent time at Maryland before transferring to James Madison, and while he didn’t see much playing time, he’s had a taste of Big Ten competition – which only helps.