Ricky Dimon
It does not get any bigger than this in tennis right now: Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz in a Grand Slam final. We have already seen it twice in a row – first at the French Open and again at Wimbledon. Now we get to witness it again at the U.S. Open on Sunday afternoon. Sinner is looking to equal his chief rival with 5 major titles, and whoever wins will be the #1 player in the world on Monday. The stakes could not be higher.
Here are my best bets for Day 15 at Flushing Meadows.
Jannik Sinner ML over Carlos Alcaraz (-125)
Sinner really should be 2-0 in slam finals against Alcaraz this season. The Italian led 2 sets to love at the French Open and had triple-championship point in the fourth set only to see Alcaraz come back and win in 5. Although the Wimbledon final was a good match, it was a much more straightforward 4-6, 6-4, 6-4 6-4 victory for Sinner. The 24-year-old still trails their head-to-head series 9-5, but their most recent contest in the Cincinnati final earlier this summer can be thrown out the winner because Sinner retired after just 5 games due to illness. I think the surface may send Sinner over the top. He has won the last 3 hard-court Grand Slams – 2 in a row in Australia and last summer in New York.
Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz Over 40.5 games (-110)
The 2 best players in the world (by a mile) have a history of playing instant classics against each other. Anything less than that is a disappointment whenever and wherever they meet. Their Roland Garros title match a few months ago went all the way to a fifth-set tiereaker. They previously faced each other at the U.S. Open in 2022, when Alcaraz survived an epic quarterfinal contest 6-3, 6-7(6), 6-7(0), 7-5, 6-3. That’s 56 games for those counting. They also waged a five-set battle in the 2024 French Open semis and went to a final-set ‘breaker later that season in Beijing.
Carlos Alcaraz -0.5 aces vs Jannik Sinner (-110)
Sinner appeared to deal a minor abdominal problem in the semifinals against Felix Auger-Aliassime. It obviously wasn’t a decisive factor in the match given that the top seed won it in 4 sets, but he did not serve particularly well. Sinner made just 53 percent of his first serves and won a modest 76 percent of the points when he put his first delivery in play. Even if Sinner is entirely 100 percent physically, Alcaraz still has a great chance to hit more aces. The world #2 has fired 74 aces in their 14 head-to-head matchups compared to his Sinner’s 70. That is not a notable discrepancy overall, but in the Wimbledon final it was Alcaraz finishing well out in front with 15 aces to his opponent’s 8.
