Ricky Dimon
It all comes down to this: Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz for the men’s singles title at Wimbledon. For Alcaraz, this marks his third consecutive appearance in the championship match and he is bidding for a third straight title. Sinner is playing in the final of this tournament for the first time in his career. This also marks the 13th chapter in what has become tennis’ best rivalry.
Let’s take a look at the Wimbledon best bets to be made on the Day 14 schedule, the finale of these Championships.
Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz Over 40.5 games (-112)
You probably aren’t fun at parties if you bet the Under on any Sinner vs Alcaraz match. Okay, all jokes aside, I’m not saying you can’t back the Under on Sunday. But who wants to root against a great match? Anything less than an instant classic between these 2 players would be criminal. As a tennis fan, you want an epic final – and you expect an epic final. And why not? Amazing things always seem to take place whenever Sinner and Alcaraz go head-to-head. Don’t be fooled by the Spaniard’s 5-match winning streak; this rivalry is much more competitive than that. Four of his 5 recent victories have required a final set, including 2 final-set tiebreakers. Their recent Roland Garros title match lasted 5 hours and 29 minutes. Alcaraz is the favorite, but Sinner is ranked #1 in the world and – aside from a fourth-round hiccup against Grigor Dimitrov – has been the more convincing player throughout these Championships. The Over is the only way to look.
Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz Under 21.5 aces (-110)
Sinner and Alcaraz have squared off 13 times (12 at the ATP level and 1 on the Challenger circuit). Here are the ace counts in those 13 matches: 2, 8, 13, 8, 14, 9, 13, 5, 1, 15, 12, 5 and 15. Asking them to suddenly get all the way to 22 seems like a bit of a stretch. For those counting, they would have to exceed their record by 7 in order to go over. Sure, a possible 5-setter on grass is the recipe for a high ace total – but not to the extent that they can break their record by a country mile. Their only previous grass-court contest came 3 years ago at Wimbledon, where a tight 4-setter produced 13 aces. They both serve bigger now, but they are also stalwart returners. Over the last 52 weeks, Alcaraz ranks second among players ranked in the top 50 by getting aced on only 4.7 percent of his return points; Sinner ranks 15th at 6.4 percent during the same time span. Even if this ends up being another marathon, the Under should still cash.
Jannik Sinner vs Carolos Alcaraz Over 0.5 tiebreakers (-215)
The juice may be substantial, but it’s still not high enough to avoid this play. The value is still there. Let’s be honest; a Sinner-Alcaraz match yielding at least 1 tiebreaker is pretty much a lock. After all, they have faced each other 12 times on the main tour and 10 of those contests have featured 1 ‘breaker or more. In total, they have played a whopping 14 tiebreakers in the H2H series. Incredibly, all 13 of their encounters have included either a tiebreaker or a final set (or both). In other words, there has not been a single blowout out of 13 matches. Now they are set for a second meeting on grass, which is the surface that produces the most tiebreakers since it is the most difficult on which break serve. I would also consider +180 on Over 4.5 total sets and +900 for the match to be decided in a fifth-set tiebreaker.
