The Thanksgiving Day lineup in Week 13 of the 2025 NFL campaign includes a showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and Dallas Cowboys. It is an absolutely massive matchup for both teams, as they try to stay in realistic playoff contention in their respective conferences. Kansas City is 6-5, while Dallas comes in at 5-5-1.
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which get underway at 4:30 pm ET on CBS. Also be sure to check out our full Cowboys vs Chiefs predictions.
Cowboys +3.5 (-115)
George Pickens to score a touchdown (+145)
Patrick Mahomes Over 268.5 passing yards (-111)
Parlay odds: +650
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Dallas wide receiver George Pickens scoring a touchdown would obviously work well with a cover by the Cowboys. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with backing Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes to throw for his fair share of yards. But even if he does, there is no reason why the home team can’t get the job done. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
Cowboys +3.5 (-115)
The Cowboys kept themselves alive in the NFC playoff picture this past weekend with a momentous 24-21 upset of Philadelphia from 21-0 down. As usual, the offense is humming. Now the defense is much improved thanks to trade-deadline acquisitions of tackle Quinnen Williams and linebacker Logan Wilson. As for the Chiefs, they are still afloat in the AFC wild-card race thanks to a 23-20 win over Indianapolis last Sunday at Arrowhead. It was an impressive and much-needed result, but Kansas City trailed 20-9 in the fourth quarter and Colts QB Daniel Jones had every opportunity to slam the door. This is still a good team, but it isn’t the K.C. of old. It is 1-4 away from home in 2025 (1-3 in true road games). Moreover, the impact of offensive lineman Trey Smith’s absence should not be underestimated.
George Pickens to score a touchdown (+145)
Pickens is absolutely balling in his first season with the Cowboys, especially in recent weeks. Over the past 2 games he has caught 18 of 20 targets for 290 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Georgia product has now found the endzone 8 times in 2025 to go along with 1,054 yards. Kansas City’s defense is good, but starting nickel back Chris Rowland-Wallace being out does not help. The bottom line is that right now it hardly matters who is defending Pickens.
Patrick Mahomes Over 268.5 passing yards (-111)
Mahomes has been cooking and the Cowboys’ pass defense is terrible, so this is a great spot for the superstar quarterback to put up some significant numbers. He has exceeded this 268.5 number in 4 of the last 5 games, including a 352-yard performance against Indianapolis. That was preceded by a 276-yard effort against an awesome Denver defense. Mahomes now faces a Dallas defense that is giving up the third-most passing yards per game and also the third-most yards per passing attempt.
Click here to add us to your Google preferred sources and never miss a story
