Sam Avellone
Friday’s Week 3 college football card is a small one, but there are few interesting matchups ahead of Saturday’s massive card – one of them being Kansas State vs Arizona. It has already been an exhausting year for the purple Wildcats, who played a conference game halfway across the world, needed a last minute touchdown to beat an FCS team at home, and then lost to Army outright – who lost to an FCS team in Week 1 – as double-digit home favorites.
While this game does not technically count as a conference game given KSU and Arizona’s prior home-and-home agreement before the Tucson Wildcats moved to the Big 12, it is a monumental contest in the trajectory of the rest of the season for both of these programs. Not to mention the fact that the home team is seeking revenge for an ugly loss in Manhattan last year.
From a betting perspective, there are a few different angles I like in this game, so I assembled them into a Same Game Parlay (SGP) for +511 odds on FanDuel. Let’s analyze each leg.
Arizona ML (+100)
1H Under 27.5 (-130)
Javin Whatley (AZ) over 46.5 receiving yards (-114)
Kansas State vs Arizona same game parlay odds: +511
Arizona Wildcats ML over Kansas State Wildcats (+100)
I recommended this play on Sunday in my opening line best bet article and took what ended up being a bad number on the Arizona Wildcats compared to what is available right now. However, despite being on the wrong side of the line move, I still like the Tucson Wildcats at home on Friday night. In fact, I make them a 2-point favorite over Kansas State per my power ratings.
Many expect KSU to have a focused, bounceback effort here, but I haven’t seen enough from this group to lay points with it in its first true road game. While KSU’s defense is a step up in talent compared to what Arizona has seen through 2 weeks, I trust Arizona head coach Brent Brennan to set quarterback Noah Fifita up for success against this unit. After all, Kansas State’s defense ranks outside the top 85 in pass PPA and outside the top 100 in pass explosiveness through 3 games despite 1 of those games being against a service academy. That doesn’t bode well for the purple ‘Cats in this matchup. Fifita can sling it, and should be much more comfortable in Brennan’s system this time around than he was last season on the road in Manhattan.
Kansas State vs Arizona 1H Un 27.5 (-130)
I’m expecting a slow start in this contest given the step in class for Arizona and the run-heavy nature of Kansas State’s offense. While Fifita has a top-20 ADOT thus far, I have to imagine that’s going to regress a bit against a Power Four defense in Kansas State, even if the Manhattan ‘Cats aren’t overly strong in coverage.
Both offenses have struggled to cap off their drives with points on a consistent basis. Arizona has 12 non-garbage time trips inside its opposing 40-yard line, yet the Wildcats average only 2.83 points per trip – which ranks outside the top 115. Kansas State is slightly better from an efficiency standpoint, but the Wildcats only have 15 scoring opportunities in 3 games. Per those averages, Kansas State is unlikely to have more than 3 drives into scoring range in the first half in what will be its first true road game. Even if KSU makes it into scoring range more than anticipated, we’ve see Arizona hold up well under pressure. In fact, the Tucson Wildcats have held their opponents to just 1 point per scoring opportunity – albeit a fairly weak level of competition to this point.
The pace of this game should be moderate. Neither team is playing at what I would consider a fast pace right now, which mirrors last year’s trends. Expecting a slower, more methodical approach to begin this game, let’s include the first-half under in our Kansas State vs Arizona same game parlay at anything 27 or higher.
Javin Whatley (AZ) over 46.5 receiving yards (-114)
Javin Whatley was highly productive in 3 seasons at Chattanooga and has not lost any momentum after transferring to Arizona. He has been Fifita’s go-to receiver this season, catching all 8 of his targets for 206 yards and 2 touchdowns out of the slot. His insane speed makes him dangerous with the ball in his hands, as evidenced by his 96 yards after catch through 2 games.
According to PFF, five of Whatley’s receptions were against zone defenses, of which Kansas State plays a decent amount. On those receptions, he averaged 7 yards per route run and carried a 15-yard average depth of target, leading to an average of 18.2 yards per reception against zone. He’s even better against man defenses.
Whatley should be able to pick apart this KSU defense. The Wildcats have struggled in slot coverage this year, allowing 9 receptions on 14 targets for 92 yards – an average of just over 10 yards per reception. Expecting a heavy target share, look for Whatley to generate a couple big plays and finish with at least 50 receiving yards. I would include this in the SGP up to 49.5.
Now find our college football best bets for the entire Week 3 slate
