Week 10 of the 2025 NFL season will begin with a showdown in the AFC West between the Las Vegas Raiders and Denver Broncos on Thursday Night Football. To say that these 2 division rivals are going in different directions would be a gross understatement. Las Vegas (2-6) is well on its way to once again missing the playoffs, while Denver boasts a 7-2 record.
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which get underway at 8:15 pm ET on Amazon Prime. Also be sure to check out our full Raiders vs Broncos predictions.
Broncos -9.5 (-110)
Under 42.5 (-102)
Geno Smith Under 211.5 passing yards (-113)
Parlay odds: +445
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the entire plan here, as Las Vegas quarterback Geno Smith being held in check would obviously work well with both a Denver cover and the under. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
Broncos -9.5 (-110)
Although I have never been a huge believer in the Broncos, I’m starting to come around. They are on a 5-game winning streak and have not yet lost at home this season. Bo Nix is following up his impressive rookie year with another stellar season, having accounted for 20 total touchdowns (17 passing, 3 rushing) while getting picked off just 3 times in the last 7 games (he previously had 3 INTs in the first 2 contests alone). Most importantly when it comes to this particular game, they are playing against the Raiders. Make no mistake about it – this team stinks. Head coach Pete Carroll’s squad seems to be getting worse as the season progresses, too. Las Vegas is 1-6 in its past 7 outings and its lone victory during this stretch has come against a lowly Tennessee outfit. The Raiders have lost by double-digits 4 times already in 2025, including by 34 points to the Colts and by 31 to the Chiefs. They have won just 2 road games since Week 2 of last year. The visitors probably won’t come close to doing so on Thursday.
Under 42.5 (-102)
The combination of Las Vegas’ offense against Denver’s defense is a perfect recipe for the under to cash. In fact, the Broncos’ offense might have to do basically all of the work in order to take this game over the total. After all, it’s hard to see the Raiders doing much of anything. They got shut out by Kansas City in Week 8 and have scored in single-digits on 2 other occasions in 2025. In a pair of regular-season losses to Denver last season, not once did Las Vegas reach the 20-point mark. So far this year, the Broncos rank #3 league wide in total defense, #4 in scoring defense (18.4 points per game allowed), #6 in passing defense and #8 in rushing defense. They are #1 in sacks by a country mile with 40 (no other team has more than 28). CB Pat Surtain II (pectoral) is out, but it hardly mattered during an 18-15 victory over the Texans this past weekend. Denver limited Houston QBs CJ Stroud and Davis Mills to a combined 191 yards through the air. The under is 3-1 in the Raiders’ last 4 overall, 7-1 in their last 8 on the road dating back to last season and 8-3 in the Broncos’ last 11 overall.
Geno Smith Under 211.5 passing yards (-113)
Smith has been held to 180 passing yards or fewer in 4 of the last 7 games, including an inept 67 yards by the Chiefs last month. Moreover, expect the Raiders to run the ball as much as possible on Thursday Night Football. As heavy underdogs, they will want to shorten the game, keep the clock moving and limit the total number of possessions. That’s not to say they’ll be able to do it…but they’ll try. Despite using its 2025 first-round draft pick on RB Ashton Jeanty, Las Vegas is getting next to nothing from the rushing attack. As a result, opposing defenses can drop guys back in coverage focus on keeping Smith’s air attack under wraps.
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