March Madness resumes on Thursday with action in the Sweet 16. A 4-game schedule is headlined by what should be an extremely entertaining affair in the West Region between Arizona and Arkansas. #2 seeds Houston and Purdue are also taking the court.
Here is my 3-leg parlay for Thursday’s slate, and also be sure to check out all of our NCAA tournament picks.
Purdue Boilermakers -7.5 over Texas Longhorns (-105)
Iowa Hawkeyes ML over Nebraska Cornhuskers (+110)
Arkansas Razorbacks vs Arizona Wildcats Over 166.5 (-110)
March Madness parlay: +683
Purdue -7.5 over Texas (-105)
Purdue was the preseason #1 team in the country. It certainly did not play like it for a good portion of the season, but head coach Matt Painter’s team is heating up at the right time. The Boilermakers won the Big Ten Tournament, taking out 3 consecutive NCAA Tournament teams in Nebraska, UCLA and #1 seed Michigan. They have since cruised past Queens University and Miami in the Big Dance. Braden Smith has played well below his normal level through 2 rounds and Purdue is still averaging 92 points per game in the Big Dance. This offense should continue to roll against a Texas squad that is #92 nationally in adjusted efficiency and is one of the worst in all of Division I at forcing turnovers. Although the Longhorns need not apologize for reaching the Sweet 16, let’s not forget that they beat BYU without Richie Saunders and Gonzaga without Braden Huff. They won’t get that lucky against Purdue.
Iowa ML over Nebraska (+110)
Both of these Big Ten teams took the scenic route to the Sweet, which isn’t surprising given that neither team – especially Iowa – was expected to make it this far. Nebraska may be a #4 seed, but this program had never won an NCAA Tournament game in its entire history prior to last week. Head coach Fred Hoiberg’s men destroyed Troy and then survived Vanderbilt at the buzzer. Iowa held off Clemson 67-61 before pulling off a stunner over defending champion and #1 seed Florida, with Alvaro Folgueiras draining the game-winning 3-pointer in the final seconds. Bennett Stirtz played poorly against the Gators (5-for-16 from the floor, 0-for-9 from deep) and the Hawkeyes still won. These 2 conference rivals squared off twice during the regular season; Iowa won by 5 before Nebraska prevailed in overtime. This is priced as a toss-up showdown because that’s what it is – but the Hawkeyes have good value as slight underdogs.
Arkansas vs Arizona Over 166.5 (-110)
This number is still a big one, but it’s a big one for a reason – and it has come down from its 168.5 opening. That has given some value to the over. Arkansas is #2 in the entire nation in scoring at 90.3 points per game, trailing only SEC rival and fellow Sweet 16 entrant Alabama. Arizona is not too far behind – 12th nationally at 86.1 points per contest. The Razorbacks are #16 in the country in pace of play (75.2 possessions per game), while the Wildcats are top 70 in that department. Arizona, especially, should light up the scoreboard on Thursday. Arkansas is in just the 15th percentile in rim defense and is ranked 275th in 2-point percentage defense (per BartTorvik). The Wildcats are more than capable of getting into the paint, as they much prefer to do that over settling for 3-pointers. Count on this matchup being as offensive as advertised.
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