Ricky Dimon
Week 3 of the 2025 NFL season will begin with a showdown in the AFC East between the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills. To say that these 2 division rivals are going in opposite directions would be a gross understatement. Miami (0-2) has been the most disappointing team in the entire league so far, while Buffalo (2-0) is coming off big wins over Baltimore and the Jets.
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which get underway at 8:15 pm ET on Amazon Prime. Also be sure to check out our full Dolphins vs Bills predictions.
Over 49.5 (-110)
Khalil Shakir to score a touchdown (+205)
Tua Tagovailoa to record 250+ passing yards (+123)
Parlay odds: +700
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is the entire plan here, as Buffalo wide receiver Khalil Shakir finding the endzone and Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa racking up a bunch of yards obviously would both work well with the over. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
Over 49.5 (-110)
Miami gave up 33 points to both Indianapolis and New England in the first 2 weeks. If those teams can do that do the Dolphins, just think what Buffalo is capable of producing on Thursday night. It’s also worth noting that the visitors have 4 defensive starters who are questionable, including DE Chop Robinson. It’s hard to describe just how bad the Fins were against an unspectacular Patriots offense, and now they have to face a Bills juggernaut that has already churned out 900 total yards of offense in 2 outings. How dynamic is Buffalo’s offense? Well, Josh Allen basically did nothing and it still pinned 30 points on the Jets – this after beating the Ravens 41-40 in the season opener. The only question mark surrounding the home side is defense. Baltimore ran all over the Bills and now 3 key guys are questionable (DT Ed Oliver, LB Matt Milano and CB Taron Johnson).
Khalil Shakir to score a touchdown (+205)
Shakir was targeted just twice and made only 1 catch in last week’s game. That is not going to cut it for the Bills. They got away with it in an easy win over the Jets, but in the long run they probably won’t go where they want to go without Shakir being productive. He is their WR1, after all. Count on Allen making a concerted effort to get his top target involved early and often on Thursday night. Shakir made 6 receptions in each of his team’s 3 playoff games last season and did the same in Week 1 against Baltimore. There is no reason why he can’t be productive – a touchdown included – against a Miami defense that ranks #24 against the pass through 2 weeks and has surrendered 3 TDs through the air.
Tua Tagovailoa to record 250+ passing yards (+123)
Tagovailoa might simply reach the 250-yard mark by default. He could throw a million passes on Thursday. It would be no surprise, obviously, if the Dolphins fall into an early hole and get blown out. If that’s the case, they will have to shorten the game by passing, passing and passing some more. Tagovailoa is coming off a 315-yard effort against New England, and that was with a somewhat modest 32 pass attempts. Buffalo ranked #24 against the pass in 2024, so this is a defense that will probably give a fair amount of yardage via the airwaves.
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