Miami vs Florida State Picks & Parlay: Same Game Parlay for College Football Week 6 at +400 odds

Following a week off, the undefeated Miami Hurricanes hit the road for the first time this season to play their in-state rival – the Florida State Seminoles. Unlike Miami, FSU comes into this game off a double-overtime Week 5 loss despite outgaining Virginia in Charlottesville by 74 yards last Friday. It was the first loss of the season for the ‘Noles, who dropped to 3-1 ahead of this ACC matchup.

Oddsmakers are giving Florida State a lot of credit in this matchup. Despite the loss last week, the ‘Noles are catching just 4.5 points at home against a Miami team that has beaten 3 of its 4 opponents by at least 19 points. With a total in the mid-50s, oddsmakers also expect this contest to be somewhat of a high-scoring affair. That being said, here are my favorite picks for this ranked rivalry matchup, parlayed together in a Miami vs Florida State same game parlay at +400 odds. 

After you lock this in, don’t forget to check out all of our NCAAF predictions for the upcoming Week 6 slate. 

Carson Beck (MIA) over 1.5 touchdown passes (-145)

Florida State team total over 23.5 (-140)

Duce Robinson (FSU) 70+ receiving yards (+140)

Miami vs Florida State Same Game Parlay odds: +400

Odds courtesy of bet365 at the time of publishing. 

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Carson Beck (MIA) over 1.5 touchdown passes (-145)

Last week was the first week that Carson Beck didn’t record at least 2 touchdown passes. Going into Miami’s matchup with Florida, the Heisman-hopeful quarterback had 7 touchdowns through 3 games with 2 passing scores on at least 24 pass attempts in each contest. I expect him to get back to that this week. 

Florida State’s defense has been good through most of the season, but last week’s loss at Virginia showed some holes on the Seminoles stop-unit. The ‘Noles surrendered 2 touchdown passes to Virginia quarterback Chandler Morris, and it probably could have been worse if he didn’t throw 3 picks. Moreover, Florida State surrendered 2 passing touchdowns to Alabama’s Ty Simpson in Week 1 despite the blowout nature of the win over Alabama. That means FSU has allowed at least 2 passing touchdowns to each of the top offenses on its schedule to this point, and there’s very little argument to be made that Miami is on Alabama and Virginia’s level offensively – if not better. 

Despite playing on the road for the first time this year, look for the experienced Beck to pick apart a Florida State defense that ranks 73rd in points surrendered per quality drive, finding the end zone at least twice through the air.

Find out all of our Miami vs Florida State predictions on the side and total

Florida State team total over 23.5 (-140)

I like both of these teams to score, so naturally I like the full-game over. However, the books greatly reduce the payout on the parlay if you choose to pair the full-game over with Beck’s passing-prop overs, so let’s pivot to FSU’s team total. The odds on this prop have steamed up throughout the week, but for the sake of this SGP, I’m including this team total over 23.5 up to -150 so that we can cash this leg on a key point total of 24.

The Seminoles have surpassed this number by at least 7 points in every game thus far, and their offensive success is depicted in their advanced metrics. FSU is top 18 in every key offensive metric I evaluate, including yards per play, PPA per play, and points per quality drive. The Seminoles also play with much more pace than the Hurricanes, which would lead to a couple extra possessions. 

Miami hasn’t played against an offense this good since its Week 1 win over Notre Dame. The ‘Canes surrendered 24 points to the Irish in that contest, but the Irish were breaking in a freshman quarterback. Florida State’s Tommy Castellanos is hardly that, so I see a path to offensive success for the ‘Noles against this Miami defense – a unit that ranks outside the top 40 in points per quality drive, PPA per pass, and passing downs PPA despite its excellent performances over the last few weeks.

Check out Sam’s CFB Saturday parlay picks at +581 odds

Duce Robinson (FSU) 70+ receiving yards (+140)

Duce Robinson and Castellanos are clearly becoming more comfortable with one another as the season goes on. After drawing just 4 targets in Week 1, the 6’6” wide receiver has been targeted 20 times in 3 games, pulling in 15 of those targets for 328 yards. As their chemistry improves, expect Robinson to continue to be Castellanos’ favorite target.. 

For what it’s worth, Robinson has caught every single one of his 7 contested targets, 5 of which came last week. With an insane catch radius, he has proven to be always open for Castellanos, so I trust he will be a big part of the gameplan and surpass 70 yards against the Hurricanes on Saturday.