Miami vs Indiana Player Props: Best CFP National Championship Prop Bets

Sam Avellone

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Long-time suffering Browns fan born and raised in the greater Cleveland, Ohio area who now resides in SEC country. University of South Carolina alum. Sports handicapper for close to 10 years with a primary focus on NCAAB while enjoying NFL, PGA, NCAAF, NBA, and Soccer. For Sam Avellone media enquiries, please email contact@pickswise.com.

Best Miami vs Indiana player prop bet: Malachi Toney (MIA) 60+ receiving yards (-114)

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -120.

This is my favorite player prop bet of the National Championship, and because of that, I included it in my Same Game Parlay. However, I will touch on why I like Toney to tally at least 60 yards again for you here.

Toney leads the Hurricanes in targets and receptions by a wide margin. With 127 targets, he is 50 ahead of the 2nd-most-targeted Miami receiver in Keelan Marion, and his 99 receptions are 43 more than Marion, as well. On those 99 receptions, Toney has compiled 1,089 yards and 11 yards per reception. He also averages 7.5 yards after the catch by way of his game-breaking speed and versatility out of the slot.

Ultimately, I see Toney as the X-factor for the Hurricanes in this game. Mark Fletcher Jr. is going to be heavily involved in the run game, but Toney will be called upon early and often in the passing game to stretch the field and get behind Indiana’s secondary, which is an area he has excelled all season.

Indiana’s defense is certainly tenacious and one of the best in the country, but the Hoosiers can be vulnerable on the back half, specifically on passing downs. Dating back to the end of October, Indiana is 55th in passing downs success rate, as well as outside the top 90 in passing downs PPA and outside the top 100 in passing downs explosiveness allowed. This is important to note because Indiana’s defense is so good on standard downs, forcing opponents into obvious passing situations more often than not. Luckily for Miami, the ‘Canes are excellent in these obvious passing situations, boasting top-20 marks in passing downs PPA and success rate since Week 9. Toney is a catalyst for that success.

Don’t miss our Miami vs Indiana prediction for a full breakdown of the 2026 College Football National Championship

Miami vs Indiana player prop pick: Kaelon Black (IND) 60+ rushing yards (-114)

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -120.

Indiana’s backfield is very close to evenly split between Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black, so it can be difficult to pick one to bet on – especially because their yardage props are very similar. However, I like Black here thanks to his ability to break away from defenders. PFF has his breakaway percentage at 42% compared to Hemby’s 28.5%, which I expect to come into play against a Miami defense that is 114th in rush explosiveness allowed outside of garbage time since Week 9. For as good as Miami’s defense has been, the Hurricanes are outside the top 20 in opposing rushes of 10+ yards, and they are 35th in opposing rushes of at least 20 yards. Black can take advantage of that.

Indiana’s backfield timeshare is definitely worrisome when you’re betting either running back to go over his yardage prop, but Black’s workload has been consistent since the Big Ten Championship. He had 16 carries for 69 yards against Ohio State, 15 carries for 99 yards against Alabama and 12 carries for 63 yards against Oregon. Hemby may get a few more carries than Black, but Black is the one that has been more productive with his workload in this playoff run, as his 4.3 YPC against Ohio State, 6.6 YPC against Alabama and 5.3 YPC against Oregon were all better than what Hemby averaged on his carries. Don’t be surprised to see Black find a couple of chunk runs to help buoy our over.

CFB National Championship player prop bet: Carter Davis (MIA) over 5.5 kicking points (-130)

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable at this number or better.

This line is juiced up into a range that I don’t typically like betting on player props, but the perceived value is hard to ignore, as this number is 6.5 at most other books. Carter Davis certainly hasn’t been the most reliable in Miami’s playoff run, as he is just 3-of-7 since the Texas A&M game, but 3 of those misses came in College Station. On Monday night, Davis will kick in his home stadium, where he is 9-of-11. For what it’s worth, he’s also made every single XP this year (49/49).

I like Miami to cover, so I think the Hurricanes will score enough to finish inside the number, but I also like the under, so I don’t see too many touchdowns being scored. Extra points certainly help our cause on this prop bet, but touchdowns aren’t the reason I like Davis’s kicking points to go over 5.5. The reason I like this prop to go over – and the full-game to stay under – is because of the red-zone defense from both teams. Indiana specifically has been elite down in scoring range, allowing just 9 red-zone touchdowns. However, the Hoosiers have surrendered 12 red-zone field goals, which ranks 93rd nationally. Cignetti is happy to give up 3 points rather than 7, and Mario Cristobal has shown he is fine with field goal attempts in scoring range – especially in lower-scoring games.

All we need is 2 field goals to ensure a win, and Davis has connected on 2 field goals in 6 games this year. He has also surpassed 5.5 kicking points in 11 games. The extra points are the cherry on top here, but I’m expecting at least 3 field goal attempts for Davis on Monday night. For what it’s worth, Indiana has surrendered at least 6 kicking points in 3 of 5 true road games this year. They should have surrendered at least 7 kicking points to Ohio State, too, but Jayden Fielding missed a 27-yard attempt late in the 4th quarter.

Now check out our expert’s Miami vs Indiana parlay picks for the National Championship!