Miami vs Ohio State Picks & Parlay: College Football Goodyear Cotton Bowl Same Game Parlay

Sam Avellone

Show Bio

Long-time suffering Browns fan born and raised in the greater Cleveland, Ohio area who now resides in SEC country. University of South Carolina alum. Sports handicapper for close to 10 years with a primary focus on NCAAB while enjoying NFL, PGA, NCAAF, NBA, and Soccer. For Sam Avellone media enquiries, please email contact@pickswise.com.

Ohio State -9.5 (-110)

Miami Team Total Under 16.5 (-170)

Jeremiah Smith (OSU) Anytime TD (+110)

Miami vs. Ohio State Same Game Parlay Odds: +350

Ohio State Buckeyes -9.5 over Miami Hurricanes (-110)

Texas A&M gave Miami 3 extra possessions in the first round of the CFP, and I don’t see that happening again. Ohio State is nowhere near as turnover-prone as Texas A&M considering the Buckeyes are top-5 in giveaways per game, compared to Texas A&M’s rank of 87th. OSU QB Julian Sayin is much more conservative with the ball in his hands than TAMU QB Marcel Reed, posting just 6 interceptions and 6 turnover-worthy plays compared to Reed’s 12 and 22, respectively.

Miami also benefited from a dominant showing from RB Mark Fletcher Jr., who averaged more than 10 yards per carry in the win over the Aggies. Simply put, he exploited a weakness in Texas A&M’s defense that doesn’t exist in the Buckeyes stop-unit. OSU is top-6 in both rush yards per game and yards per attempt allowed this season, which means Miami QB Carson Beck may have to beat the Buckeyes through the air. That’s going to be tough, as they are 1st overall in passing yards allowed per game and 2nd in yards per attempt. Beck is certainly an above-average college quarterback, but can he be trusted against Matt Patricia’s defense? He threw 2 picks against USF and SMU, as well as 4 in Miami’s loss to Louisville.

Defensively, Miami grades almost as well as Ohio State, but there were some curious performances against Louisville and SMU, and the Buckeyes can exploit those defensive inconsistencies. Mix in the coaching advantage for Ohio State, and the path to a double-digit win becomes visible.

Find our full Miami vs. Ohio State prediction, including picks on side and total

Miami Hurricanes Team Total Under 16.5 (-170)

Miami’s offense can certainly be explosive, but it can also be non-existent – much like it was in lieu of a win over Texas A&M. The Hurricanes only gained 278 yards in that game, in addition to converting just 3 of 12 third downs, which is concerning given the 3 turnovers they forced. The inability to finish drives against an Aggies defense that sits outside the top 125 in red-zone scoring allowed doesn’t bode well for Miami’s chances to find pay dirt against the top-ranked Buckeyes red-zone defense.

I’m going right back to the well with OSU’s defense in this spot. Ohio State has not allowed a single opponent to score more than 16 points this year, which includes their 13-10 loss to Indiana in the Big Ten title game – the Hoosiers’ lowest scoring output of the season by a full touchdown. Don’t be surprised to see Miami settle for multiple field goals here.

Jeremiah Smith (OSU) Anytime TD (+110)

There’s no need to introduce Jeremiah Smith. If you follow college football, you know how dominant he is. Opposing defensive coordinators center their gameplans around stopping him, and very few have succeeded. He’s scored 11 touchdowns this year, and while Carnell Tate certainly eats into his target share, he’s about as matchup proof as it gets at this level.

Smith exploded for 2 touchdowns in each of his first 2 playoff games en route to 5 total playoff touchdowns last year, so he’s been there, done that at that highest level. For what it’s worth, he’s coming off a game against Indiana in which he did not score, and he has yet to be blanked in consecutive games this year. Despite Tate’s stellar play, Smith should demand the bigger target share and is likely to be Sayin’s first option in scoring range. At plus-money, this feels like a no-brainer.