The College Football Playoff returns to center stage on Thursday night in what should be a very exciting game between the 12-2 Miami Hurricanes of the ACC and the 13-1 Ole Miss Rebels of the SEC. Oddly enough, these teams are playing in the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl out in Arizona instead of in Atlanta at the Peach Bowl, but in any case, the action kicks off at 7:30 pm ET on ESPN. To get you set for this semifinal matchup, I’ve put together a Miami vs Ole Miss parlay at +310 odds courtesy of bet365. Let’s dive right into the breakdown, and don’t forget to check out our NCAAF predictions for picks and analysis for both semifinals and the National Championship game.
Over 52 (-110)
Trinidad Chambliss (MISS) over 264.5 passing yards (-115)
Mark Fletcher Jr. (MIA) 90+ rushing yards (-120)
Miami vs Ole Miss Fiesta Bowl parlay odds: +310
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Over 52 (-110)
I’m expecting the Fiesta Bowl to be pointsy, so let’s lead the SGP off with a bet on the over. Ole Miss’ offense has been electric all season, and the Rebels feel a bit matchup-proof at this point. They play at a top-20 pace, and they have one of the explosive offenses in the country, which are 2 traits that should bode well against Miami’s lethal pass rush. Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss has been very good at evading pressure and beating blitzes with big plays down the field and minimal mistakes, and his constant threat of the deep ball opens running lanes for Kewan Lacy to average 5 yards a carry. With Chambliss under center, the Rebels have a high floor offensively, scoring no less than 24 points in any of his starts.
On the other side of the ball, the Rebels can be gashed, especially on the ground. They leave a bit to be desired on standard downs, which means Miami RB Mark Fletcher Jr. should be able to put QB Carson Beck in more manageable passing situations, leading to more sustained drives into scoring range. The one issue is Miami’s slow pace of play, but Ole Miss plays fast enough to provide a nice floor as far as number of possessions go, and the Rebels are below-average in terms of limiting explosive plays.
Read our full Miami vs Ole Miss prediction for tonight’s Fiesta Bowl
Trinidad Chambliss (MISS) over 264.5 passing yards (-115)
We’ve been riding the Chambliss over train for the past few weeks, and we’re not hopping off now. He continues to light up defenses, as his 362 yards against Georgia was the 8th time he’s surpassed the 300-yard mark this season. I understand why this line is so low relative to his recent run of 333, 301, 359, 282 and 362 yards; it’s because of Miami’s ferocious defense. However, Chambliss has been able to beat pressure consistently this year, as shown by his top-12 mark in yards per attempt and the 3rd-most big-time throws nationally in those situations. When kept clean, which may happen more than you think if Ole Miss’ lightning-fast pace can negate Miami’s pass rush, Chambliss is a perpetual downfield threat with 20 big-time throws and an average of 9.1 yards per attempt.
For what it’s worth, Chambliss is fairly accurate on his passes of 20+ yards, sitting 9th nationally in adjusted completion percentage at 55.6%, and his 39.3% big-time throw rate on those passes is good for 2nd nationally behind Oregon’s Dante Moore – who is in action tomorrow.
Mark Fletcher Jr. (MIA) 90+ rushing yards (-120)
Why get cute? Fletcher has been a focal point of this offense in Miami’s playoff run, toting the ball 17 times against Texas A&M and 19 times against Ohio State. He hit the 90-yard mark exactly against the Buckeyes on the heels of his 172-yard performance against the Aggies, and he should be in line for another big day against this Ole Miss run defense. The Rebels can be exposed a bit on the ground, and that showed in their first 2 playoff games when they surrendered 5.7 yards per carry to Georgia’s Nate Frazier and 5.6 to Tulane’s Jamarui McClure.
Now check out our Oregon vs Indiana predictions for the Peach Bowl in the other College Football Playoff semifinal matchup
There have now been 6 games this season in which Fletcher was given at least 16 carries – including the 2 playoff games – and he rushed for at least 90 in all but one against SMU (84). As long as he stays highly involved, he should clear this number and then some.
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