Bowl season rolls along on Thursday with a standalone game between the 7-5 Missouri State Bears and the 6-6 Arkansas State Red Wolves in the XBOX Bowl. The Bears technically shouldn’t be here, as this is their first year at the FBS level — but various team opt-outs gave them a path to their first-ever bowl appearance. Meanwhile, Arkansas State earned bowl eligibility with its 30-29 win over Appalachian State in the season finale.
Thursday’s bowl action kicks off at 9:00 pm ET on ESPN2 in Frisco, Texas. To get you set for this matchup, I have arranged my favorite bets into an Xbox Bowl Same Game Parlay with odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s get to the picks, but don’t forget about our NCAAF predictions for tips and picks on every postseason game.
Arkansas State ML (+102)
Chauncy Cobb (ARST) 60+ receiving yards (+122)
Jaylen Raynor (ARST) anytime TD (+110)
XBOX Bowl Same Game Parlay odds: +589
Arkansas State Red Wolves ML over Missouri State Bears (+102)
Posting a 7-5 result in their first season at the FBS level is an impressive feat for the Bears, but when you look deeper into their results, you will see they beat up on bad competition. Against a strength of schedule that ranked outside the top 110, Missouri State beat just one bowl-eligible team this year. Meanwhile, Arkansas State beat 3 bowl-eligible teams with only a slightly better strength of schedule.
Money is flowing in on Missouri State, as Arkansas State opened as a favorite before the line flipped in Missouri State’s favor overnight ahead of game day. I disagree with the line move here. While the Bears will certainly be motivated to win their first-ever bowl appearance, the Red Wolves have been there, done that under head coach Butch Jones. This will be the third consecutive bowl appearance for Arkansas State, losing by 2 to Northern Illinois in 2023 and beating a solid Bowling Green squad last year 38-31.
Against slightly better competition in the Sun Belt compared to Conference USA, Arkansas State has a much more efficient defense. The Red Wolves are 46th in PPA per play and 49th in points allowed per quality drive since the end of October, along with a top-35 mark in standard downs PPA. Furthermore, they are right around the top 50 in both PPA per rush and PPA per pass, while boasting a top-35 mark in havoc generated outside of garbage time since Week 9. A majority of that havoc is produced by Arkansas State’s front seven, which is not a great situation for Missouri State. The Bears are 133rd in havoc allowed since Week 9, as their offensive line doesn’t generate much push at the line of scrimmage – allowing the 3rd-most sacks and tackles for loss in the country. As such, Missouri State QB Jacob Clark has been sacked 40 times this season, which is tied for 2nd-most nationally.
Arkansas State QB Jaylen Raynor faces his fair share of pressure and has been sacked 30 times this year, which is not great in and of itself. However, Missouri State’s defense is not nearly as big of a threat when it comes to havoc, sitting 88th in sacks and 121st in tackles for loss. In a game between 2 middling teams with turnover-prone quarterbacks, I side with the better defense in Arkansas State.
Chauncy Cobb (ARST) 60+ receiving yards (+122)
Chauncey Cobb has yet to score a touchdown this season, but he’s heavily involved in the Arkansas State passing attack. In fact, he leads the team in receptions despite accumulating 24 fewer targets than Corey Rucker. Cobby plays predominantly in the slot – on more than 90% of pass snaps – and is the best receiver on the team when it comes to yards after catch (467 yards, 6.8 yard per reception. He should benefit from an excellent matchup against what has been a bad Missouri State secondary, especially in the slot. For reference, three of Missouri State’s back-end defenders sit in the bottom 15 in Conference USA when it comes to yards allowed out of the slot. Look for Cobb to remain heavily involved in the offense in the XBOX Bowl on Thursday.
Jaylen Raynor (ARST) anytime TD (+110)
Missouri State has been dreadful against mobile quarterbacks of late, allowing 7 rushing touchdowns to opposing signal callers over its last 4 games. Those issues are likely to persist against Arkansas State, as Raynor is an integral part of the Red Wolves rushing attack. He leads the team in rushing attempts (151) and rushing touchdowns (7), and while he has not found the end zone as a runner since October 25th, he carried the ball around 10 times per game down the stretch – not including his sacks. At a plus-money price, Raynor is a solid bet to find the end zone against a Missouri State defense that is 106th in PPA per rush allowed since Week 9.
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