Ricky Dimon
The 2025 MLB postseason continues on Friday with Game 5 in the ALDS between the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners. It’s a win-or-go-home situation, with the winner advancing to the ALCS against the Toronto Blue Jays while the loser is eliminated. The Pickswise team is on an 53-36 run in this MLB best bets series prior to Thursday’s pair of games. Let’s build on that momentum and hopefully deliver some more winners on Friday’s slate!
Make sure you also check out our MLB picks for every game.
MLB best bet: Seattle Mariners ML over Detroit Tigers (+120)
Odds available at Bet365 Sportsbook at time of publishing
Something’s gotta give on Friday. Either Detroit loses with Tarik Skubal on the mound or Seattle loses at home. Neither development happens often, but one will in Game 5. With the Mariners priced as underdogs, that is where the value lies. After all, they have already defeated Skubal once in this series. In Game 2 in Seattle, the Mariners got him for 2 runs in 7.0 innings en route to a 3-2 victory for the home team. Both of the runs came on solo shots by Jorge Polanco. That’s not the only time the M’s have gotten the best of Skubal in 2025. During the regular season, the southpaw went 0-2 with a 5.91 ERA in this head-to-head matchup.
Don’t expect the Mariners to completely torch Skubal, but at the same time, they may not have to score a ton to prevail. Seattle is expected to go with George Kirby and also has Luis Castillo available. The combination of those 2 guys should be enough to keep Detroit’s bats in check. If it’s Kirby, he would be pitching on 5 full days of rest after going 5.0 innings in the series opener and allowing just 2 runs. Both Kirby and Castillo have been dominant over the past month, so Seattle’s pitching is in good shape.
The Mariners went 51-30 at home during the regular season; only the ALCS-bound Blue Jays had a better home record in the American League. Detroit finished just 1 game over .500 on the road (41-40). I’m going with Seattle at plus-money.
MLB best bet: Randy Arozarena Over 0.5 hits (-130)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing
Even with Skubal toeing the rubber, Arozarena should be in a good spot on Friday. As the Mariners’ leadoff hitter, Arozarena’s at-bats will be maximized – giving him the highest possible number of opportunities to deliver. The 30-year-old hit safely in 3 consecutive contests – including a multi-hit performance in Game 3 against the Tigers. Thus continues a hot streak for Arozarena, who wrapped up the regular season with at least 1 hit in 4 of his last 5 contests – including a trio of multi-hit performances (1 game with 3 hits).
Moreover, facing Skubal isn’t a terrible thing for Arozarena. The left fielder is a solid 6-for-21 (.286) lifetime against Skubal with 1 double.
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