Caleb Wilfinger
The 2025 MLB season keeps rolling along, and Monday features a slate of 10 games for us to enjoy. I’m 12-4 on my MLB best bets and the Pickswise MLB handicapping team as a whole is 36-14-4 in these MLB best bets this season. Let’s keep it going as we get into today’s top picks on Monday, May 5. Also, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks for Monday’s slate.
MLB best bet: Los Angeles Dodgers first 5 innings team total over 2.5 vs Miami Marlins (-120)
Odds available at Fanatics Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -125.
To start things off, let’s head to Miami for a National League matchup between the Dodgers and Marlins at LoanDepot Park. The visiting team clearly holds an edge in this matchup, but due to the uncertainly with how the Dodgers are going to approach this game on the mound, I’d much rather hone in on the Los Angeles lineup to do damage against a pitcher that simply isn’t what he once was a few years ago.
Just a few years ago, Sandy Alcantara was one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball. However, this season has not gone to plan for the Marlins ace following his return from Tommy John surgery, as he’s posted a 8.38 ERA and 1.65 WHIP through his first 6 outings. Furthermore, Alcantara has surrendered 20 runs on 21 hits, along with 13 walks over his last 16.1 innings pitched, with his worst outing coming against this same Dodgers team on April 29. After all, the Dodgers lineup is hitting well over .300 against Alcantara with a .550 slugging percentage. Even if Alcantara improves on his previous outing, all we need is for Los Angeles’ elite lineup to put up 3 runs in the first 5 innings. Ultimately, I made this wager in this exact same matchup in a previous best bets column, so let’s go right back to the well and take the team total over in the first 5 innings on Monday.
MLB best bet: Kansas City Royals -1.5 over Chicago White Sox (-115)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -120.
For this second and final best bet, we’re heading to Kansas City for a wager on the Royals to win and cover this AL Central clash on the run line. Any time I get the chance to fade the White Sox with a team that has the much better starting pitcher on the mound and a better lineup at the plate, I’m going to do it. Chicago has already established itself as the worst team in the American League, and I’m expecting its struggles to continue against Cole Ragans, who has established himself as one of the better pitchers in the AL over the last few seasons. Ragans is coming off a couple of shaky outings, but his 2.45 xERA, .192 expected batting average and 36% strikeout rate suggests that he’s due for some positive regression. It just so happens that he’ll go against a White Sox lineup that is ripe for the picking in this one.
On the other side, Shane Smith’s expected numbers (3.97 xERA, 21.9% chase rate, 44.5% hard-hit rate) suggest that he’s been pitching a bit over his head this season, so the Royals bats should keep on rolling at home in a favorable matchup. All things considered, let’s back Kansas City to stay hot and win its 9th game over the last 11 contests on Monday.
