Caleb Wilfinger
The 2025 MLB season keeps rolling along, and Saturday features a full slate of 15 games for us to enjoy. I’m 15-7 on my MLB best bets and the Pickswise MLB handicapping team as a whole is 43-23-4 in these MLB best bets this season. Let’s keep it going as we get into today’s top picks on Saturday, May 17. Also, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks for Friday’s slate.
MLB best bet: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 over Pittsburgh Pirates (-130)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -140.
For my first best bet on Saturday’s slate, let’s head to Pittsburgh for a matchup between a couple of teams trending in completely different directions, as the Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Philadelphia Phillies. Philadelphia has won 7 of its last 10 contests and the Phillies look to be a major contender in the National League, while the Pirates are clearly one of the worst teams in baseball and are operating at a major disadvantage whenever Paul Skenes doesn’t take the mount. With that in mind, I’m targeting the Phillies to win by margin for the second consecutive game in this series.
Zack Wheeler is getting the ball for the Phillies, and that typically means good things for Rob Thompson’s team. After all, the Philadelphia ace holds a 2.95 ERA for the season and he’s allowed 2 runs or fewer in 7 of his 9 outings this season. He’ll be in a solid position to succeed against a Pirates lineup that is 27th in batting average and 29th in OPS on the season. As for Pittsburgh, Carmen Mlodzinski (5.20 ERA) is getting the ball in this one, and he’ll be going up against a Phillies offense that is clicking at the moment, as shown with their 8-run outburst on Friday. All things considered, I’ll back the home favorites on the run line.
MLB best bet: Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 over Colorado Rockies (-155)
Odds available at BetRivers Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -170.
For my 2nd MLB best bet on Saturday, we’re heading to Arizona for an NL West showdown between the Rockies and Diamondbacks. I didn’t mind eating the juice and laying the big number against the Rockies on Friday, and I’m going back to the well for Saturday’s contest. This is a Colorado team that is clearly the worst unit in baseball, and probably by a good margin. Fading the Rockies has proven to be a profitable endeavor all season long, and Arizona should be in good position to pick up another win by margin at home. The Rockies are ranked dead last in team ERA (5.80) this season, and their outlook looks bleak once again with German Marquez on the mound in this one. Marquez holds an 8.27 ERA, having surrendered 34 earned runs in 37 innings pitched, so the Arizona offense should be in position to succeed in this matchup.
As for the Diamondbacks, Zac Gallen is set to take the mound for Arizona, which typically means the team will be in good position to pick up a victory. Gallen currently holds a 4.59 ERA, but his 3.64 xERA suggests that he’s due for a bit of positive regression. That should come against a Rockies lineup that is a massive step down in class from the elite Dodgers and Mets units that Gallen has faced recently. With that in mind, we can expect the Diamondbacks starter to cruise in this one, especially at home. Ultimately, Arizona has every reason to lead this game by multiple runs going into the 9th inning, so let’s back the much better team on the run line on Saturday.
