Caleb Wilfinger
The 2025 MLB season keeps rolling along, and Wednesday features a full slate of games for us to enjoy. I’m 11-3 on my MLB best bets and the Pickswise MLB handicapping team as a whole is 31-12-3 in these MLB best bets this season. Let’s keep it going as we get into today’s top picks on Wednesday, April 30. Also, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks for Wednesday’s slate.
MLB best bet: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 over Washington Nationals (-102)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -110.
To start things off, let’s target the Philadelphia Phillies on the run line in this NL East clash. The Phillies have a clear edge on the mound in this game, as Christopher Sanchez is always a threat to toss a gem whenever he gets the ball. Sanchez has consistently improved over every year of his career, and he’s a guy who projects to be one of the top pitchers in the game going forward. The lefty has real ace stuff and his spring training stats (1.62 ERA with a 0.84 WHIP in 5 spring training starts) were indicative of a pitcher that is entering into the upper echelon of all MLB starters. Thus far, his outings this season have supported that notion, as Sanchez has posted a 3.42 ERA (2.99 xERA) while surrendering just 10 earned runs over 5 starts, and that success should continue into Wednesday’s matchup.
On the other side of the equation, the Nationals have been slightly better than expected through the first month of the season. However, Washington is in a tough spot on Wednesday, and while Jake Irvin has solid numbers on paper this season (3.19 ERA, 13 earned runs in 6 starts), his expected metrics are much closer to what his career numbers have been throughout his career (4.82 xERA, .280 xBA, 12.5% barrel rate, 47.1% hard-hit rate). Ultimately, I expect Philadelphia to hold a lead through the middle innings, so let’s roll the dice with the favorite on the run line at nearly even odds.
Read our full Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies prediction
MLB best bet: New York Mets team total over 3.5 (-135)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -140.
For my final MLB best bet, we’re heading to New York for a National League matchup between the Diamondbacks and Mets at Citi Field. This Mets offense is absolutely rolling this season, and it certainly presents a formidable test for any opposing pitcher. Ordinarily, I would trust Corbin Burnes to get Arizona on the board and at least hold a lead after the first 5 innings. However, while Burnes has been solid on paper this season, allowing just 6 runs over his last 18 innings pitched, his expected metrics are undeniably concerning (5.25 xERA, .275 xBA, 52% hard-hit rate).
Additionally, Burnes doesn’t profile well against the Mets lineup, particularly the likes of Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso and Juan Soto. That doesn’t bode well for Arizona in this matchup, and while I can’t get there with the Mets to win this game at the current price, I’ll back New York to exceed its team total while it’s still at 3.5 runs.
Read our full Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Mets prediction
