Ricky Dimon
A new week in Major League Baseball gets underway with a 12-game schedule on Monday. I’m red hot in the early stages of the season, with a 30-19-1 record so far in this best bets piece while going 3-for-7 on Same Game Parlays at +481, +632 and +439 odds and 5-1 on YRFI/NRFI picks. Pickswise’s MLB handicapping team on the whole is 51-29-4 on their best bets. Let’s keep it going as we get into my MLB best bets of the day!
Also don’t forget to check out our MLB picks for Monday’s slate.
MLB best bet: Texas Rangers F5 ML over Toronto Blue Jays (-154)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
Jacob deGrom is in resurgent form in his comeback from injury and will take the mound for Texas on Monday. It is true that the Rangers have been playing bad baseball of late, but they should be able to turn things around behind deGrom. This club has won 4 of the right-handers last 5 starts and during this 5-game stretch it is outscoring opponents 37-10. In that span, deGrom has allowed a mere 5 runs in 31.0 innings. He heads into Monday’s matchup against Toronto with a 4-1 record, 2.33 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and a 62-to-12 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 58.0 innings.
This in an all-around fantastic spot for the Rangers, who own Blue Jays righty Kevin Gausman. Corey Seager is 11-for-25 lifetime against the veteran with 1 home run and 3 doubles; Kevin Pillar is 14-for-42; Tucker Barnhart is 3-for-9 with a homer and 2 doubles. Moreover, Toronto is 9-15 on the road and Texas is 17-10 at home. I love the home side on the money line, but the first 5 innings value is even better. That takes the bullpens out of the equation, and Rangers relievers worked a bunch of high-leverage innings against the White Sox this past weekend.
MLB best bet: Kansas City Royals ML over Cincinnati Reds (-120)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
Michael Lorenzen pitching for Kansas City at home against Cincinnati’s Nick Martinez is a fantastic matchup for the Royals. Martinez’s numbers are solid overall, but he is 0-3 with a 4.18 ERA on the road. Lorenzen (3.77 ERA) is 2-0 with a 0.95 ERA at home compared to 1-5 with a 5.17 mark away from the friendly confines of Kauffman Stadium. Additionally, the Royals are 17-9 at home while the Reds are sporting a 12-14 away record.
K.C. is 4-2 in Lorenzen’s last 4 starts, with the only losses during this stretch coming by 1 run on the road at Houston and San Francisco. Cincy is 0-5 in Martinez’s 5 road appearances. With neither team in particularly good form at the moment, there is no reason to think that those aforementioned trends will suddenly change. Let’s back the Royals at home with confidence.
Read our full Royals vs Twins prediction
