Ricky Dimon
A new week – and month – in Major League Baseball begins with a 13-game slate on Monday. It includes Mets vs Tigers, Blue Jays vs Reds, Guardians vs Red Sox and Phillies vs Brewers. The Pickswise team is on an 16-5 run in this MLB best bets series. Let’s build on that momentum and hopefully deliver some more winners today!
Make sure you also check out our MLB picks for every game on Monday, September 1.
MLB best bet: Cincinnati Reds ML over Toronto Blue Jays (-126)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing
The Reds may be playing themselves out of wild-card contention in the National League, but they at least have some momentum heading into Monday after taking the series finale against visiting St. Louis via a 7-4 decision. Cincinnati gets to stay at home, too, whereas Toronto is traveling from Milwaukee after losing 2 of 3 games against the Brewers. The Blue Jays are an even 34-34 on the road this year compared to 45-24 at home.
Playing in Cincy and sending Hunter Greene to the mound, the Reds have to like their chances in this one. The right-hander is sporting a 2.81 ERA and 0.97 WHIP to go along with 94 strikeouts and only 16 walks in 77.0 innings. Green has been stellar in 3 starts since returning from the injured list, so that absence is no longer of any concern. Toronto is countering with Chris Bassitt, whose home-road splits are ridiculous. The righty boasts a 2.76 ERA in his own park, but that balloons to 6.10 on the road. Considering all of those factors, the Reds should really be bigger favorites in the series opener.
MLB best bet: Chicago Cubs ML over Atlanta Braves (-124)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
Atlanta’s Spencer Strider missed basically all of last season due to shoulder surgery and his comeback – aside from staying healthy to some extent – has not gone as planned. Strider is 5-12 with a 4.95 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. The right-hander has been especially bad of late, as he compiled a 10.13 ERA during the month of August. Strider at least performed well in his most recent start (7.0 innings of 1-run baseball against Miami last Monday), but you still know something isn’t right when his strikeout numbers are down. The 26-year-old has 7 Ks and 5 walks over his past 3 appearances.
A matchup with Colin Rea and the Cubs does not bode well for Strider and the Braves. Strider comes in with a 5.10 ERA on the road, while Rea has allowed only 3 runs in 10.2 innings across his past 2 home outings. Chicago is 16 games over .500 at Wrigley Field compared to just 3 games over .500 on the road. Atlanta is 13 games under .500 on the road and exactly .500 at home. By all metrics, this matchup sets up extremely well for the Cubbies.
