Ricky Dimon
The week in Major League Baseball continues with a more than full 16-game slate on Thursday. It features Mets vs Braves, Brewers vs Cubs, Padres vs Dodgers and a pair of double-headers (Cardinals vs White Sox and Pirates vs Tigers). The Pickswise team has been in fine form so far this season. I’m 38-28-2 record so far in this best bets piece while going 4-for-8 on Same Game Parlays at +481, +632, +439 and +600 odds and 6-2 on YRFI/NRFI picks. Pickswise’s MLB handicapping team on the whole is 67-49-5 on their best bets. Let’s keep it going as we get into my MLB best bets of the day! Also don’t forget to check out our MLB picks EVERY MATCHUP on today’s slate.
MLB best bet: Tampa Bay Bays ML over Baltimore Orioles (-135)
Odds available at bet365 at time of publishing.
Charlie Morton has pitched better for Baltimore since briefly moving to the bullpen – but that’s not saying a lot given how bad he was earlier in the season. He is still close to an automatic fade for me. The 41-year-old right-hander is 3-7 with a 6.05 ERA, 1.66 WHIP and barely more than a 2-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio (67 Ks, 32 BBs in 61.0 innings). The Orioles on the whole have at least started to win some baseball games in recent weeks, but they are still one of the most disappointing teams in the league at 31-42.
Whereas Baltimore is 15-23 on the road, Tampa Bay is 25-21 at home – and a solid 41-33 overall. Drew Rasmussen is taking the mound for the Rays and he is 6-4 with a 2.55 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. His team has won each of his last 6 starts, including 5 of those by multiple runs. The Rays have won 5 of their last 6 over following Wednesday’s 12-8 victory; they should be able to stay hot.
Read our full Orioles vs Rays prediction for today’s matchup
MLB best bet: New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Under 9 (-120)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
The Mets are in the midst of a season-long 5-game losing streak. In fact, they have been shut out twice in the last 3 outings and have not score more than 5 runs on any occasions since June 8. New York now faces Spencer Strider, who is returning from a 2024 elbow injury but is showing signs of his former self. Strider has delivered 2 consecutive quality starts and in his most recent appearance he fired 6.0 innings of scoreless baseball against Colorado while striking out 13 guys.
Atlanta’s offense figures to be held in check, as well. Ronald Acuna Jr. has been on fire since coming back from a 2024 injury of his own (ACL), but no one else in the lineup is going a whole lot. The Mets are countering with Clay Holmes, who is 7-3 with a 2.87 ERA. The right-hander has given up just 1 run in each of his last 2 starts across 11.0 innings. All signs point to the series finale in this NL East rivalry being a low-scoring affair.
Read our full Mets vs Braves prediction, while our expert also has their best MLB player prop bet from that matchup!
