It has been a fun MLB season so far, and that should continue on Saturday with a full 15-game slate of action. There are 3 best bets standing out to me on today’s board including a side, a total, and a player prop. Let’s dive in and discuss today’s MLB best bets!
MLB Best Bet: Cleveland Guardians ML over Atlanta Braves (+100)
Odds available at BetMGM sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -110 odds.
Let’s start in Atlanta where the Braves are set to host the Cleveland Guardians for Game 2 of a 3-game weekend series. I didn’t bet Game 1 of this series, but I did consider the over which cleared easily, seeing 16 total runs scored in that matchup. Atlanta won that game by a final score of 11-5, but I favor the Guardians in Game 2 thanks to what I find to be a sizable starting pitching edge.
Parker Messick was called up late last season for the Guardians as a 24-year-old rookie. He made 7 starts spanning 39.1 innings of work while maintaining a 2.72 ERA and a shade under a strikeout per inning. Messick was lethal in the Guardians minor league system and unlike typical Cleveland starters his strikeout production was above average. His first start of 2026 was in Los Angeles against the 2-time defending champion Dodgers, and he delivered 6 scoreless frames with no walks. He did issue 3 free passes to the Cubs in his 2nd outing but still held Chicago to just 1 run through 5 innings. The Braves have been very productive against left-handed pitching so far which presents Messick with another tough matchup, but I expect more strong innings from the youthful southpaw.
A less youthful left arm will begin the game for the Braves with 35-year-old Martin Perez making his 3rd appearance of the season. His first outing was a bulk relief appearance with 4.1 innings of scoreless ball against the Athletics. Perez made his 1st start against the Diamondbacks, allowing 4 earned runs through his 5 innings. I watched parts of that start against Arizona and was unimpressed with his stuff. He is still someone that can get outs as a 5th starter or long reliever, but he is no longer the guy he was for Texas in 2022. Cleveland’s lineup is not overpowering but they are an above average unit against left-handed pitching so far this season. OOPSY projects Perez to have an ERA a full run higher than Messick this season, and Cleveland also holds the bullpen edge. I love getting +100 on Cleveland in this spot.
MLB Best Bet: San Francisco Giants vs Baltimore Orioles over 7.5 (+100)
Our next 2 plays will come in the matchup between the San Francisco Giants and the Baltimore Orioles. San Francisco won game 1 of this series by a 6-3 final score. Neither team has had a great start to their season, and the same is true for both starting pitchers in Saturday’s matchup. Paul ‘Hembo’ Hembekides of ESPN made an interesting point recently, mentioning how the automated ball strike system is likely to have a larger effect on pitchers who rely heavily on called strikes. This is likely to be especially true for called 3rd strikes. Looking back through recent seasons both Chris Bassitt and Logan Webb rank among the top of qualified pitchers in looking strike rate and looking strikeout rate. Both pitchers early season woes can also be attributed to different things. Webb started his season with the World Baseball Classic, and his rhythm has been thrown off. Bassitt is on a new team for the first time in 3 years and is getting used to his new setting.
Webb allowed 10 base runners in 5 innings against the Yankees to open up the season, allowing 6 earned runs and an additional unearned run. His 2nd start was better, posting a quality start with 6 innings and 3 earned runs against the Padres. That was in a pitcher-friendly environment as well, though, and he did allow 4 walks in that start. His best start so far was his last outing against the Mets, tossing 7 innings of 1-run ball at home. Webb has been much better at home throughout his career, but this start against Baltimore is on the road. The Orioles have a 104 wRC+ against right-handed pitching despite slow starts from several expected contributors.
Bassitt gets to face the weaker lineup today, but he is also in worse and more concerning form than Webb. The 37-year-old has seen a dip in production the past 2 seasons despite remaining production at the backend of Toronto’s rotation. He has looked extremely shaky to start 2026 with an inability to generate chases and opponents crushing pitches in the zone. His first start resulted in 10 base runners and 4 earned runs across 4.1 innings to the Rangers. Pittsburgh got to him even worse, scoring 6 earned runs off him with 8 men reaching base in 2 innings. The Giants have been the league’s worst offense against righties so far, but this total remains too low for the form of these starters.
MLB Best Bet: Rafael Devers (SFG) over 1.5 total bases (+131)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to +115 odds.
Even if the game total between San Francisco and Baltimore doesn’t surpass 7.5 runs, I still believe we will come out on top in that game. Rafael Devers has a +131-price tag to record 2 or more total bases in this matchup. This is a matchup in which Devers is more than familiar, having faced Bassitt 20 times entering today. Devers has yet to draw a walk in those 20 plate appearances which is beneficial for this specific bet type, as walks do not count towards total base props. Bassitt has allowed the lefty power hitter to record 10 hits in those 20 at-bats with 3 doubles and 3 home runs in that sample.
After a slow 2-16 start to the month Devers has caught started to heat up recently. He has at least 1 hit in 4 of his last 5 games including a 2-hit outing with a home run against the Phillies on the 8th. He is also more than familiar with Camden Yards from his time as an opponent with the Red Sox. His 13 home runs at Camden are the 3rd most of any ballpark in his career and while today’s wind is not necessarily advantageous, it is less resistant than his home park air in San Francisco.
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