The MLB season has gotten off to a terrific start, and Saturday should be more of the same with an awesome looking slate of games. Temperatures are heating up in some MLB locations, and we should start to see some offenses round into form shortly. Let’s dive in and discuss our 2 best bets for today’s slate of games!
MLB Best Bet: Boston Red Sox ML over San Diego Padres (-144)
Odds available at FanDuel sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -155 odds.
Connelly Early was a late season call-up for the Boston Red Sox in 2025, providing the club with some much-needed assistance in their starting rotation. The southpaw hurler put together 100.1 terrific innings in the minor league system last season before his call up. He then provided Boston with 19.1 innings and a 2.33 ERA across 4 starts. He had tough competition to break the rotation this spring, given their depth and talent at that position, but Early’s stuff won out and I am looking to bet on him today. Projection systems have Early’s ERA ranging from 3.61 to 4.07 this season, and projection systems tend to be conservative on young arms. I believe in his pitch mix, as he showed 6 pitches last season, and his strikeout upside is something that should benefit him with runners on base. San Diego has a tough lineup at the top of the order, but I am concerned about the bottom half of that lineup and the team’s depth this season.
Randy Vasquez was awesome in his season debut for San Diego, tossing 6 innings of scoreless ball with 8 Ks against a solid Tigers lineup. While that was an impressive outing, I am skeptical that his success will continue to that extent. The strikeout output is something I am hesitant to believe in, as Vasquez has been a low strikeout arm throughout his career. In 2025 Vasquez posted a 3.84 ERA across 133.2 innings, but his underlying metrics suggest he got a bit lucky with those results. A 5.37 xERA and 5.51 xFIP are worrisome marks, and his batted ball profile was poor as well. Facing a tough Boston lineup in Fenway Park should lineup poorly for Vasquez, and I favor Boston in this game given current pricing.
MLB Best Bet: Pittsburgh Pirates First 5 Innings ML over Baltimore Orioles (-104)
Odds available at FanDuel sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -115 odds.
The Pittsburgh Pirates opened their series with the Baltimore Orioles on Friday, winning an entertaining game by a 5-4 final score. Konnor Griffin made his MLB debut and provided an immediate spark with an RBI double in his first plate appearance. PNC Park was popping, and we should expect a similar environment on Saturday with another sellout crowd expected. Carmen Mlodzinski was sharp in his first start of the season, striking out 8 Mets in 4.1 innings while issuing 0 walks along the way. He did see 2 earned runs cross the plate due to 6 base hits, but I was impressed with his strike throwing and stuff in start number 1. Mlodzinski was used both in the rotation and bullpen in 2025, but as a starter he was lethal early on in games. His focus this offseason was being able to work deeper into games and see batters for a 2nd and 3rd time with more success.
Shane Baz was less impressive in his Orioles debut, allowing 4 earned runs in 5.1 innings while only earning 4 strikeouts against a below average Minnesota Twins lineup. Baz was traded to Baltimore this offseason and then he signed a massive contract extension, so Baltimore is clearly a believer in his talent. The former Pirate prospect will get his chance to show off that talent at PNC Park Saturday, but I was a bit worried with his opening performance of the season. While his upside is clearly there, Baz has yet to be an overly consistent pitcher in this league. Injuries have played a role in that lack of consistency to be fair to the right-hander. Pittsburgh is a step up in competition from Minnesota in terms of their lineup, and I do expect the Pirates to score a few early runs off Baz in this game. I am a fan of the current pricing on Pittsburgh through 5 innings of play.
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