MLB picks Wednesday 10/11: YRFI & NRFI best bets today: Houston lineup too hot to handle in Game 4

Oct 5, 2022; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros left fielder Yordan Alvarez (44) hits an RBI single during the third inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
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Kyle Lupas


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Born and raised in Northeast Pennsylvania and a former college baseball player, I'm an avid fan and handicapper of the MLB, NBA, NFL and NCAA's. Looking to find an edge by any means necessary. A lifelong Phillies fan, I was still unable to get my learner's permit the last time they made a postseason appearance. For Kyle Lupas media enquiries, please email
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Don’t like sitting around for the entirety of a baseball game waiting for your bet to cash? Well then, the YRFI/NRFI market may be your new favorite betting strategy. Just reserve about 10 to 15 minutes to watch the first inning and forget about the other eight. With the Texas Rangers moving on to the ALCS, we only have a 3-game slate today and Atlanta has yet to announce today’s starting pitcher. With that, I only have one pick for today’s divisional round slate, and it comes out of Minnesota. So, let’s get right into it, and don’t forget to check out our MLB picks on the side and total for every game today.

Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins: YRFI (-115)

The Houston Astros put on an absolute clinic at the plate yesterday, piling on 9 runs on 14 hits, including a 2-homer day from Jose Abreu. Houston wasted no time in Game 3 and jumped out to an early 4-0 lead after the first frame. It’s easy to see why this team is just 1 win away from playing in their 7th consecutive ALCS. The top of the Astros’ lineup has no holes right now, as Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and Yordan Alvarez are hitting a combined .342 with 7 home runs in the first 3 games of the series. With Minnesota’s season on the line, this is a difficult spot for Joe Ryan to be making his postseason debut and it’ll also be his first game action since September 29.

After a strong 2022 campaign, Ryan had high expectations entering this season, but 2023 has been anything but clean for the hard-throwing 27-year-old. Through 29 regular season starts, Ryan’s 4.51 ERA is nearly a run higher than it was a season ago and the second half hasn’t been great. Over his last 11 outings, Ryan owns a 6.09 ERA and is facing an Astros’ lineup that crushes right-handed pitching. Not only that, but Ryan relies heavily on his 4-seam fastball which he throws 56.9% of the time and I believe that could be a recipe for disaster.

If the Astros are unable to get on the board in the top half, I like the Twins chances to do damage against Astros’ starter Jose Urquidy. Like Ryan, Uriquidy is pitching in his first game since September 29 and is not entering the day with the strongest regular season numbers. In 10 starts and 16 total appearances, Urquidy owns a 5.29 ERA and his command has been a major concern. Uriquidy’s 9.1% walk rate is by far the worst of his career and he’s not an overpowering pitcher with just a 16.4% strikeout rate. Although the Twins only plated 1 run yesterday, they gave themselves plenty of opportunities and were just unable to come through with the big hit. Minnesota finished the game 1-for-9 with runners in scoring position but I’m expecting better success today against Uriquidy than they had against Cristian Javier in Game 3.

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