Javan Shouey
The 4th of July is one of my favorite holidays, filled with fireworks, food, and baseball. I normally cover my favorite YRFI and my favorite NRFI bets of the day in this article, but today we are looking for our own fireworks with 2 YRFI best bets. Let’s dive into our MLB YRFI/NRFI best bets for Friday, July 4, while you can also check out our MLB picks for EVERY GAME today!
YRFI/NRFI best bet: Rays vs Twins – YRFI (-142)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -150 odds.
Zack Littell is a low-strikeout-rate arm, and today he runs into a matchup against the Minnesota Twins. Minnesota has changed their approach at the plate this season, making more contact than ever and benefiting from more balls put into play. I am not a fan of Littell’s matchup today, considering his 12.0% barrel rate ranks in just the 7th percentile among MLB pitchers this season. The weather is also in favor of the hitters today with temperatures in mid-90s and wind blowing from right to left.
Not only does Minnesota have a strong chance of striking early, but I also like the matchup for the Tampa Bay batters against Chris Paddack. Paddack has struggled in his last 4 outings, allowing 29 base hits in that span with 4 of them leaving the park. His 19 earned runs allowed in that span are not encouraging, and Paddack is not someone I have been very fond of all season long. Look for at least one run to be scored in the first inning of this matchup today.
Make it a Fourth of July to remember with our MLB parlay picks for today at +854 odds!
YRFI/NRFI best bet: Rangers vs Padres – YRFI (-115)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -125 odds.
A more affordable YRFI bet for today’s slate of games can be found in the Rangers vs Padres matchup. Kumar Rocker enters this game with a 6.13 ERA through his first 39.2 innings of work. His 1.54 WHIP is the result of a 10th-percentile hard-hit rate, and his .297 xBA sits just 4th percentile. While certainly a talented pitching prospect, Rocker has yet to find his groove at the MLB level so far in his early career. He faces a Padres lineup that makes a ton of contact and is loaded toward the top of their order. If backing the Padres’ offense, I like to do so in angles like this where we can isolate their better batters.
Randy Vasquez is starting for the Padres and also is not a pitcher I fully trust. He is overperforming his expected metrics this season, posting a 3.84 ERA despite a 5.59 xERA and 5.40 FIP. He walks too many batters for my liking and doesn’t earn enough strikeouts to make up for it. His batted ball metrics are lackluster, and he has benefited from an unsustainable .253 BABIP so far this season. The Rangers are not my favorite offensive unit, but they are capable of striking early in this matchup.
With our experts on a red-hot 8-2 run, lock in our MLB best bets for today!
