Javan Shouey
As has been the case all weekend long, hitting conditions are ideal in most MLB stadiums on Sunday with warm temperatures and favorable wind patterns set to help batters across the league. Make sure to check the forecast before placing your wagers this morning and make sure to check out the rest of our website for more helpful betting angles.
This article covers our favorite YRFI and NRFI bets for this beautiful slate, so let’s dive in!
YRFI/NRFI Best Bet: Boston Red Sox vs San Francisco Giants – NRFI (-125)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -135.
Winds are projected to be blowing out at around 11 MPH for this matchup between the Boston Red Sox and San Francisco Giants, but the game is being played in a park that diminishes the effect that wind has on the ball, and temperatures are set for the low-60s. San Francisco plays its home games in one of the more pitcher-friendly parks baseball has to offer, and the game total for this matchup on Sunday is set at just 7.5. Lucas Giolito and Robbie Ray both enter in good form, and I am looking for a quick and efficient first inning from them both this afternoon.
Giolito had a very rough outing against the Angels on June 4, allowing 9 baserunners and 7 earned runs while recording just 5 outs along the way. His 2 starts before that resulted in 11.2 innings of 1-run ball against the Orioles and Braves, and his 2 starts since have resulted in 12.0 innings with 0 earned runs allowed against the Rays and Mariners. In his 23.1 innings on the road this season, the right-hander has posted a 1.93 ERA while opponents are hitting just .181.
Ray added a changeup to his arsenal in the offseason and the results have been good for the veteran southpaw, as he is posting a 2.68 ERA through his first 87.1 innings of work. He has a new pitch to help keep opponents off balance and having that added tool has helped his other pitches perform better. Boston is a youthful lineup nowadays with the trade of Rafael Devers, and the majority of the young bats have yet to see Ray. I expect him to pitch well not only in the first inning, but also throughout this entire matchup.
YRFI/NRFI Best Bet: Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays – YRFI (-111)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -120.
There are several games with enticing spots for a run within the first inning on this slate, but given pricing my favorite such matchup is between the White Sox and Blue Jays. Weather is playing a large role in several games today, but this one is being played in a dome. That doesn’t mean pitching has to prevail, as I actually like the matchups for both offenses relative to the price we are receiving. Chris Bassitt began the season in very strong form for the Blue Jays, allowing just 2 combined earned runs in his first 4 starts spanning 23.1 innings of work. Since then, the veteran right-hander has allowed 3 or more earned runs in 8 of 11 starts, including 6 times with 4 or more earned runs allowed. Bassitt has seen his command of the zone regress to previous form and the White Sox are among the most patient lineups in the sport. They are capable of striking first in this matchup.
While the White Sox can cash this bet for us, the real attraction for me is the Toronto offense facing off against Adrian Houser. Houser has a 2.15 ERA through his first 29.1 innings of work this season, but his 4.38 SIERA suggests there is nearby regression in his performance. The right-hander is a low strikeout arm that struggles to generate whiffs, and he also ranks just 25th percentile in hard-hit rate. That is not a combination that sets you up for success when facing Toronto, which is one of the better contact-oriented lineups in the sport. The Blue Jays rarely whiff, and their plate discipline should pay off in this matchup as well with Houser’s tendency to get wild. Given current pricing, this is my favorite YRFI bet on the board today.
