Caleb Wilfinger
The MLB season is rolling along on Monday, and the first month of the campaign has already produced a lot of exciting action on the diamond. While there are plenty of ways to wager on all of the action this season, one of the quickest bets you can make is if a run will be scored in the first inning. There is still value to be had in this market, so it’s no wonder that these bets have become very popular over time. If you don’t like sweating out your wagers for 3 hours, this one will take only about 15 minutes.
The NRFI/YRFI market has been profitable for our MLB handicapping team this season, so let’s keep that momentum going! But before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks for all of today’s games.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets: NRFI (-135)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -145.
Our best bet in the YRFI/NRFI market takes us to New York for a matchup between the Pirates and Mets on Monday from Citi Field. This is a battle between a couple of National League foes, one that appears to be pretty one-sided in favor of the Mets on paper. And even though the roster gap between these teams is massive in terms of talent and depth, I’m of the belief that we’re getting a lower-scoring game on Monday, in large part because of the prowess of both starting pitchers. With that in mind, I’m anticipating that the pitchers will have the early edge in this game — which is why I’m targeting a scoreless opening frame.
The Pirates will be sending out their ace for this matchup, which makes the NRFI immediately compelling — even against a strong Mets lineup. Skenes has been as advertised to this point in the campaign, posting a 2.77 ERA (2.50 xERA) and allowing just 15 earned runs and 34 hits over 48.2 innings pitched. On the other side, David Peterson gets the ball for New York, and his 3.06 ERA and 13 earned runs over his 38.1 innings pitched this season suggests that he should be able to hold down the below average Pirates offense for at least the first inning. All of the above points me in the direction of the NRFI on Monday.
Los Angeles Angels vs San Diego Padres: NRFI (-135)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -145.
For our second and final best bet in the YRFI/NRFI market has us targeting a scoreless first inning in San Diego between the Angels and Padres. San Diego starter Michael King is in the midst of a tremendous 2025 campaign to this point, having posted a 2.22 ERA with 48 strikeouts in just over 44 innings pitched through the opening 6 weeks of the season. With the Angels lineup struggling mightily and not having much experience against King, the veteran right-hander should be able to carve up Los Angeles, particularly in the opening frame. On the other side, the Angels are sending Yusei Kikuchi to the mound, who has surrendered just 8 runs over his last 5 outings, with 3 of those efforts coming against playoff teams. Ultimately, the NRFI is the only way I can look in this matchup.
