Caleb Wilfinger
The MLB season continues on Monday, and the 2025 campaign has already produced a lot of exciting action on the diamond. While there are plenty of ways to wager on all of the action this season, one of the quickest bets you can make is if a run will be scored in the first inning. There is still value to be had in this market, so it’s no wonder that these bets have become very popular over time. If you don’t like sweating out your wagers for 3 hours, this one will take only about 15 minutes.
The NRFI/YRFI market has been profitable for our MLB handicapping team this season, so let’s keep that momentum going! But before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks for all of today’s games.
YRFI/NRFI best bet: Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers – NRFI (-130)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -140.
Our best bet in the YRFI/NRFI market takes us to Los Angeles for a matchup between the Diamondbacks and Dodgers from Dodger Stadium. This is a battle between a couple of National League West foes, one where both pitchers could be in trouble considering how both lineups have excelled in recent contests. With that in mind, I’m anticipating that the bats will have the early edge in this game — which is why I’m targeting the YRFI on Monday.
The Diamondbacks have struggled on the mound in 2025, as they currently sit at 25th in team ERA to this point (4.70), while also sitting at 22nd in team WHIP. The struggles should continue for Arizona starter Brandon Pfaadt (5.66 xERA, .304 xBA) on Monday, a pitcher whose advanced metrics and batted-ball data suggest that regression is coming compared to his actual results this season. On the other side, the Dodgers are going to send Landon Knack (5.89 ERA, 53.7% hard-hit rate, .281 expected batting average) to the mound, and this typically means good things are in store for opposing hitters. Knack hasn’t experienced much success this season, and the Diamondbacks lineup (3rd in OPS, 5th in runs scored, 6th in team batting average) isn’t one that a struggling pitcher will enjoy facing. Ultimately, I’ll eat a bit of juice and back the YRFI in this NL West matchup.
