Javan Shouey
The week in Major League Baseball concludes with a full 15-game schedule on Sunday. The YRFI/NRFI market is extremely popular in baseball betting. After all, you don’t have to sit around for 3 hours to see if your wager hits; the satisfaction (or in some cases disappointment) is immediate. It all comes down to the first inning.
Let’s take a look at my 2 best NRFI bets for Sunday.
YRFI/NRFI Best Bet: Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers – NRFI (-150)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -160.
Eury Perez vs Brandon Woodruff is my favorite starting pitching matchup on Sunday’s slate of MLB action from a viewership perspective. Bookmakers are expecting a pitching duel with the posted game total sitting at just 6.5, the lowest on today’s 15-game slate. Perez had a delayed start to his season due to injury, and rust was apparent upon his return with 11 earned runs allowed in his first 4 outings spanning a combined 16.0 innings of work. His performance in July has been far stronger, however, as the 22-year-old has allowed just 3 earned runs combined in his 23.0 innings this month. He has 26 strikeouts to only 3 walks issued in that span, and I expect a scoreless first inning from Perez in this matchup with Milwaukee.
Woodruff also had a delayed start to his season due to injury, but the veteran righty did not show any rust upon his return to the majors. With 16.1 innings under his belt through his first 3 appearances this season, Woodruff has allowed just 3 earned runs. His 23 strikeouts in that span have been accompanied by zero walks issued, showcasing both his willingness to fill up the zone and the proof that his elite stuff still exists. Woodruff is one of the sports better pitchers when healthy and on his game, and he should shred this Marlins lineup on paper.
YRFI/NRFI Best Bet: Tampa Bay Rays vs Cincinnati Reds – NRFI (+100)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -110.
Shane Baz allowed 8 earned runs in his last start. That is not great when suggesting a NRFI, but I am a fan of what Baz has been able to do this season on the road. The right-hander has not meshed well with his minor-league home ballpark, posting a 6.33 ERA in his first 58.1 home innings while allowing 12 home runs and a .265 opponent batting average. In 55.2 road innings, however, Baz has dropped that ERA to 2.91 with 7 homers allowed and a .225 average allowed. He has been dominant in the first inning this season regardless of venue, posting a scoreless first inning in 19 of his 20 starts including each of his 9 road starts.
Brady Singer was traded to Cincinnati this offseason and some pundits were concerned that he would fail to perform well in Great American Ballpark. While his 4.84 ERA overall has not been what Reds fans hoped for, he has actually pitched better when at home — recording a 4.02 ERA in 53.2 innings. His first innings at home have been exceptional, allowing a run in just 1 of his 10 home starts so far. He will look to keep that rolling Sunday against the Rays. At +100 odds, I find value on this NRFI today.
