Monday Night Football Predictions: Rams vs Falcons Picks, Odds & Best Bets for Week 17

Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay of the Los Angeles Rams

Andrew Wilsher

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Managing Editor of Pickswise. Born and raised in jolly old London, England, with an undying love for the NFL, NBA, soccer and horse racing. A big-time sports bettor who loves futures markets and backing underdogs. Long-suffering New York Jets fan. For Andrew Wilsher media enquiries, please email contact@pickswise.com.

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Rams vs Falcons predictions & NFL MNF picks

Chris Farley’s Rams vs Falcons best bet: Rams -7.5 (-110)

In yet another heartbreaking loss, the 11-4 Rams looked like the better team for the majority of their Week 16 contest last Thursday. Los Angeles accrued 581 total yards and 26 first downs on one of the best defenses in the NFL, but their rival never gave up. Seattle benefited from a 58-yard punt return touchdown by Rashid Shaheed that brought them within distance late. Then an embattled Sam Darnold, who threw 2 interceptions in the rematch, took advantage of the opportunity and tied it up to force overtime.

Even in overtime, Matthew Stafford and the Rams went right down the field to score a touchdown. The Seahawks answered, though, and then cashed in a victory with a 2-point conversion with only 3 minutes left in extra time. Like many of their losses this season, the Rams could have easily been the victor last Thursday, and we still consider Sean McVay’s program among the best in the NFL. This Monday night, they’ll have an opportunity to exact revenge.

There wasn’t anything particularly exciting or intriguing about the Falcons’ win this past Sunday, especially considering their opponent. Nonetheless, Atlanta earned their 2nd straight victory in Week 16, rallying and rushing for 152 yards on a proud Cardinals defense. The revival of Kirk Cousins continues, although it certainly came with some tribulation. Cousins lost a fumble early and threw an interception late in the contest, but ultimately, a consistent rushing attack and good enough defense kept the Falcons afloat. It’s worth noting that they only gained 4.7 yards per play against a defense that ranks 24th in advanced EPA metrics.

The Rams’ defense will look to respond after what they permitted last Thursday. As a team, they have not lost consecutive games all season. And after a loss, they’ve only won by margin. In 3 prior cases, they beat the Colts by 7, the Ravens by 14, and the Cardinals by 28. Two of those 3 games were on the road. A long trip out to Atlanta isn’t ideal when you’re a West Coast program, but the Rams can still win their division and capture the NFC’s #1 seed, particularly since Seattle has 2 very tough games remaining (at Carolina, at San Francisco). This number could be inflated even more and we wouldn’t look away. It’s Rams or nothing.

Chris Farley’s Rams vs Falcons prediction: Under 50 (-110)

At this point of the season, we have almost no trust in the Atlanta defense. A group that was once top-5 in almost every category at the beginning of its campaign, the Falcons’ defense has regressed more and more as the year’s gone on. They sit at a respectable 16th overall in advanced EPA metrics, but against the run they’re a lowly 27th, allowing a putrid 4.6 yards per carry. Against exceptional offenses this can be a real problem. For example, the Falcons allowed the 49ers to run for 174, the Colts for 323, and the Seahawks, who are not a top-tier rushing team (21st in rush yards per game), for 129. All 3 contests resulted in losses and plenty of scoring for their opponents (88 combined points).

The Rams are prolific on the ground (9th in yards per rush) and through the air (3rd in yards per pass), so this sets up for another game where their offense can hum, with or without Davante Adams (early reports suggest he’ll miss Week 17).

The total will likely be decided when the Falcons have the ball, and we don’t have much confidence in Raheem Morris’ group in that regard, either. Kirk Cousins has had some nice games since he took over the starting role for the Falcons, but in every case, it came against cupcake defenses. When Cousins and company faced a top unit (Seattle in Week 14), the results were much different: 15 points, 274 total yards.

Advanced metrics tell us that the Rams, despite their Week 16 mistakes, remain a top defense, ranked 6th overall and allowing just 19.9 points per game (also 6th overall). After last Thursday’s performance and considering what’s on the line, we expect far better results this Monday. A total this high suggests that both offenses will realize considerable success, but we can’t agree with that notion. Our projections have this closer to 45-46, so we’ll side with fewer points in this NFC affair.

Read NFL pro bettor Chris Farley’s full analysis for his Rams vs Falcons predictions for MNF, where he has hit 18 of his last 26 picks!

Rams vs Falcons MNF player prop bets

Prop Holliday’s best Rams vs Falcons player prop pick: Drake London over 5.5 receptions (-114)

Drake London returned last week after missing 4 games to the tune of 69% of the snaps and 8 targets. I view this Rams secondary as the biggest weakness on the team overall, ranking 28th in receptions to opposing wide receivers. The Rams have had well over a week to prepare for this game, and a 7-point spread would indicate a negative game script for Atlanta, having to go pass-heavy if they find themselves down early on. London has hit this number in 60% of games this season and 66% when he plays over 80% of snaps. Jauan Jennings, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jameson Williams, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Michael Wilson are all WRs who have hit this number against the Rams over the last 7 weeks. Expect London to join that list on MNF.

Don’t miss Prop Holliday’s best MNF player prop bets for Rams vs Falcons, targeting Drake London

Rams vs Falcons TD scorer best bet: Drake London (ATL) anytime touchdown scorer (+175)

A lingering knee issue left Drake London with his worst performance of the season last week, along with his lowest snap count. Bijan Robinson dominated with 23 touches, with the Falcons handling the Cardinals by a touchdown. Monday Night Football should look much different, as the Falcons are home underdogs by a touchdown to a Rams offense with an implied team total of 29 points — the 3rd-most of the Week 17 slate.

But Kirk Cousins, in a negative game script, calls for London to have a big-time game and be peppered with targets. Given London’s reception line is at 5.5, expect the star receiver to be looked to early and often, and for him to convert one of those into a touchdown.

Rams vs Falcons MNF TD scorer prediction: Colby Parkinson (LAR) anytime touchdown scorer (+150)

Rookie Terrance Ferguson has been the flashy piece in the red zone for the Rams, playing without Davante Adams, but it’s Colby Parkinson I’m looking to back to score a TD in Rams vs Falcons on MNF. Parkinson played a season-high 79 snaps in the game of the year last week in the 39-38 TNF thriller against the Seahawks, though it resulted in just 2 receptions on 4 targets. Nonetheless, he’s one of Stafford’s dependable targets and is a featured asset on a loaded offense that has scored 28+ points in 5 straight games. With the Rams expected to score multiple TDs, Parkinson should account for at least one of them.

Now check out the rest of JutPicks’ Rams vs Falcons touchdown scorer best bets

LA Rams vs Atlanta Falcons Parlay

After cashing 4 SGPs over the past 2 weeks at +650, +407, +600 and +675 odds, don’t miss our Rams vs Falcons parlay picks for MNF tonight!

Rams -9.5 alternate spread over Falcons (-102)

Los Angeles played the game of the year in Week 16, losing an overtime thriller at Seattle. The Rams really should have won; they were a better team for the vast majority of that TNF showdown. It was a brutal loss, but it should do nothing to diminish anyone’s confidence in head coach Sean McVay’s squad. Expect the Rams to come out like gangbusters in Week 17, plus they have the benefit of playing on extra rest.

The last time Atlanta faced an opponent that is currently inside the playoff cut line was Week 14 against none other than Seattle, and the result was a humiliating 37-9 setback in front of its own fans. What’s to say this team will suddenly be competitive against the Rams? Kirk Cousins has actually looked serviceable in place of Michael Penix Jr., but an immobile quarterback against Jared Verse and LA’s pass rush is not a recipe for success. I see a double-digit win for the Rams on the cards.

Puka Nacua to score a touchdown (-145)

The Falcons may be top 10 in passing defense, but they really aren’t anything special in that department. They are allowing 7.1 yards per pass attempt and have given up 24 touchdowns through the air. Atlanta does have 50 sacks this season (2nd-most in the NFL), but its blitz-heavy packages won’t faze a gunslinger like Matt Stafford. His connection with Nacua should be alive and well on MNF, especially with Davante Adams sidelined by a hamstring injury. Nacua can be counted on to pick up the slack in Adams’ absence. The BYU product has scored 4 touchdowns in the past 3 games, so asking him to find the end zone just once on Monday night should not be too much.

Kyren Williams to record 80+ rushing yards (+186)

You can expect LA’s ground game to be working, as well. The likely game script is for the visitors to build a sizable lead and then work the clock. That’s where Williams really comes into play. The former Notre Dame standout got 23 carries during last week’s loss to Seattle, and it would be no surprise to see him get at least 20 in this matchup. He is facing a Falcons defense that ranks 25th league-wide against the run, allowing 128.2 yards per game on 4.6 yards per carry. Williams has gained at least 70 yards in 6 of the last 7 contests, including more than 80 on 3 occasions during this stretch.