NBA Win Total Predictions: Expert Pre-Season Over/Under Best Bets for NBA Teams

The excitement for the new 2025-26 NBA season is slowly building up as we approach the first regular season games this upcoming week. With preseason ending this Friday, this is the ideal time to take a look at some of the over/under bets for the regular season.

Over the past 3 seasons I have posted an 8-5 record with these type of bets, I got 5 more bets coming your way for this year.

Let’s take a deep dive into those 5 NBA win total best bets, but also don’t forget to check out our 2025-26 NBA championship picks, as well as our 2025-26 NBA MVP Predictions.

Denver Nuggets Over 53.5 Wins (-105)

As I said in my 2025-26 NBA championship best bet article, I have a ton of trust in the Nuggets going into this season. Their projected win total sits at 53.5 which is in the realm of basically what this team has done over the past 3 seasons. After flaming out in the West semis against eventual champions Oklahoma City, the Nuggets went back to the drawing board and made some swift changes to the roster. Bruce Brown is back, joined by Tim Hardaway Jr., Cam Johnson and Jonas Valanciunas. Those additions fill the scoring void left behind MPJ who departed to the Nets, while Valanciunas gives Joker a breather during the long 82 game regular season. Denver is in a win-now mode, over the past 3 season they’ve won 50+ games each time which isn’t a small feat in the bloodbath that is the Western Conference. I have the Nuggets winning at least 56 games this regular season, this is one of my more confident bets.

Memphis Grizzlies Over 39.5 Wins (-102)

Last year’s version of the Memphis Grizzlies finished the regular season with a 48-34 record, I am actually stunned that the oddsmakers have their projected total this low. Sure, losing Desmond Bane is a big blow, but they welcome in a hungry Kentavious Caldwell-Pope for defensive purposes and Ty Jerome for additional help offensively. They also get a full training camp with head coach Tuomas Iisalo, I just feel like this team is headed at least towards a play-in spot which at +100 odds sounds very tempting. Injuries are the only thing that can sway you away from this bet. To start the season Ja Moran, Jaren Jackson Jr., Zach Edey and Brandon Clarke are all out, but if the Grizzlies can weather the storm in the opening couple of weeks of the season I really like their chances. In 3 of the last 4 seasons Memphis has gone 56-26, 51-31 and 48-34. This team always overperforms in the regular season and this year should be no exception.

Philadelphia 76ers Over 42.5 Wins (-112)

Nobody waited more for the 2024-25 NBA season to finish than the Philadelphia 76ers did. The year was a total trainwreck, but luckily for them they get to press the reset button and start from zero this season. Injuries have decimated this team last year, but at some point that has to turn around, right? With Boston, Indiana and Milwaukee all expected to fall off, there will be plenty of wins for other teams to get and this is an opportunity for the 76ers to make their mark. No major moves were made during the offseason, which was to be expected as this team doesn’t have any cap space left. Joel Embiid missed a bunch of games in preseason, but if used correctly I feel like he can limp to the postseason healthy enough for Philadelphia to make some noise. Tyrese Maxey has developed into one of the better shooting guards in the NBA, he carried the entire Sixers offense on his back for the better part of the 2024-25 season. Paul George had knee surgery in July and his recovery is going as planned. If the Sixers start off the season on a high note, PG will be motivated to do well as he continues to chase his first NBA ring. The good thing about the 76ers is that they’ve hit rock bottom and they can only get better from here on.

Atlanta Hawks Under 47.5 Wins (-122)

Everyone seems to be jumping on the Atlanta Hawks bandwagon, I am not one of those people that are buying the hype around this team. Since the 2016-17 season, Atlanta has gone on to have a winning record only twice, while in the 3 most recent seasons they posted winning percentage of .488, .439 and .500 which isn’t great. Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Kristaps Porzingis are their two major offseason additions, while Clint Capela, Caris LeVert, Terance Mann, Larry Nance Jr. and Georges Niang have all departed. This is a make-or-break season for the Hawks and Trae Young in particular. When things weren’t going according to plan last season, we heard rumbles of the Hawks potentially exploring trades for their most valuable asset. Young’s most efficient shooting season came in 2021-22 when he went 46% from the field and 38% from three. By today’s standards, those numbers are hardly impressive. Not to mention he is a massive liability on defense and has been for years. Teams like the Cavs, Knicks, Magic and Pistons are all better than Atlanta in my opinion, I’d be surprised if this team won more than 45 games this year.

Miami Heat Over 38.5 Wins (-102)

Norman Powell’s arrival is huge for the Heat. He averaged 21.8 points per game on a stacked Clippers team last season, on over 41% efficiency from three. Once Tyler Herro heals his foot and ankle injury, those two have the potential to be one of the more lethal backcourts in the league. Nikola Jovic got an extension, he played well at Eurobasket this summer and could make a leap. The distraction called “Jimmy Butler” is no longer there, plus I’m also expecting Bam Adebayo to bounce back after arguably his worst season in years. Heat culture is something that we hear often in the NBA these days, with the top half of the East being crippled with injuries you just know the motivation will be high for the Heat to do something as the team that is labelled as the dark horse by many. Last year the Heat finished with just 37 wins, their lowest total since the 2014-15 season, I expect them to at least be a .500 team this time around. Backing a strong over on this one.