NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Conference Tournament Winner Predictions & Betting Odds: North Carolina battles Duke for ACC supremacy

North Carolina Tar Heels players RJ Davis (4) Harrison Ingram (55) Elliot Cadeua (2) forward Armando Bacot (5) and guard Cormac Ryan (3) take the floor during the first half against the Duke Blue Devils.
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Sam Avellone


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Long-time suffering Browns fan born and raised in the greater Cleveland, Ohio area who now resides in SEC country. University of South Carolina alum. Sports handicapper for close to 10 years with a primary focus on NCAAB while enjoying NFL, PGA, NCAAF, NBA, and Soccer. For Sam Avellone media enquiries, please email
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Selection Sunday is less than a week away, which means the NCAA Tournament is right around the corner. However, before we reach that point, we have a jam-packed week of conference tournament action to enjoy. Almost every team still has a chance to earn a trip to the Big Dance by winning an automatic bid with a conference tournament title, so no bubble team is safe until they hear their name called on national TV on Sunday. 

There is an incredible amount of action almost all day, every day during conference tournament week, so this guide should help consolidate some of your research and find teams that you feel possess the most betting value. Let’s check out the odds for each of the power conference tournaments and some of the high mid-major tournaments, along with a pick for each. You can also find out our college basketball picks for all the big games in the conference tournaments and EVERY NCAA Tournament matchup!

As always – remember to shop around for the best odds before placing your wagers. Odds will inevitably move throughout the week, and finding the best of the number should always be of top priority. 

In North Carolina and having trouble choosing a sportsbook to kick off your sports betting experience? Check out the latest North Carolina Sportsbooks, Best Betting Sites, Apps & Guide.

College Basketball Power Conference Tournament previews

Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament odds

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing

  • Duke Blue Devils +180
  • North Carolina Tar Heels +190
  • Wake Forest Demon Deacons +750
  • Clemson Tigers +950
  • Virginia Cavaliers +1300
  • Pittsburgh Panthers +1600
  • Virginia Tech Hokies +3200
  • Syracuse Orange +5000
  • NC State Wolfpack +5000
  • Florida State Seminoles +6000
  • Miami Hurricanes +9000

ACC Tournament best bet: North Carolina Tar Heels (+190)

The Tar Heels have been the class of the ACC this season, boasting a league-best 17-3 record. While they lack depth, the Tar Heels are one of the most experienced teams in the country, and they have 3 of the 10 most impactful players in the conference on offense and defense per EvanMiya’s performance ratings. In fact, North Carolina touts the 4th-most efficient defense in the country in the last 3 weeks of the regular season. It has limited its opponents to a 43.8% effective field goal percentage in that time, including 38.9% from inside the 3-point line – both top 15 marks nationally. 

UNC pairs its elite defense with an almost equally as efficient offense that has been top 30 for the entire season. The Tar Heels are led by one of the best scorers in the country in RJ Davis, who averages more than 20 points per game, and Armando Bacot – who has been one of the nation’s best post scorers and offensive rebounders for the past 4 seasons. With +190 odds, the Tar Heels have an implied probability of about 34.5% to win the ACC tournament. However, with their success on both sides of the court in the last 3 weeks, rebounding prowess and veteran experience – I project the Tar Heels to win the ACC Tournament closer to 45% of the time and would play them down to +140.

Big East Tournament odds

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing

  • Connecticut Huskies -135
  • Creighton Bluejays +425
  • Marquette Golden Eagles +500
  • St. John’s Red Storm +800
  • Villanova Wildcats +1600
  • Seton Hall Pirates +3500
  • Providence Friars +6000

Big East Tournament best bet: Creighton Bluejays (+425)

While UConn has won 2 national titles in the last 10 years, it has not won its conference tournament since 2016 and has yet to win the Big East Tournament since rejoining the league in 2020. The Huskies will certainly be hungry to cut down the nets in Madison Square Garden in order to break that spell, but there is not much value in their current odds. Given their recent form in the last 3 weeks, the most value seems to lie with the Creighton Bluejays – who have been nearly as efficient as UConn on both ends of the floor in that time. 

Since February 17th, the Bluejays have the 6th-most efficient offense in the country with a 59.2% effective field goal percentage – which ranks 13th. Their defense has been reliable as well, with top 15 marks in efficiency, 3-point rate and free throw rate. Ryan Kalkbrenner anchors the defensive unit as one of the premiere shot-blockers in the nation, while Baylor Scheierman and Trey Alexander offer support as top 20 defenders in the Big East along with him. Creighton can be a bit too dependent on its 3-point shots, which is a concern if they have a cold shooting performance. However, they have the size and perimeter shooting capabilities to match UConn in a potential championship game matchup – where they are unlikely to be more than a 5-point underdog. I would play this all the way down to +300.

Big Ten Tournament odds

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing

  • Purdue Boilermakers +100
  • Illinois Fighting Illini +300
  • Nebraska Cornhuskers +700
  • Michigan State Spartans +1000
  • Wisconsin Badgers +1500
  • Northwestern Wildcats +1600
  • Ohio State Buckeyes +3500
  • Iowa Hawkeyes +3500
  • Maryland Terrapins +6000
  • Indiana Hoosiers +8000

Big Ten Tournament best bet: Purdue Boilermakers (+100)

In full disclosure, this was the most difficult conference to pick. The Big Ten Tournament feels wide open, but Purdue seems to have the highest floor and most likely chance to make the title game given their draw. Not many, if any, teams in the top of the Big Ten bracket have the means to stop Zach Edey in the post while simultaneously limiting Purdue’s scorching-hot perimeter shooters Braden Smith, Mason Gillis and Fletcher Loyer. The Boilermakers have been in the Big Ten title game 2 years in a row, so they know what it takes to get there. In fact, one could argue they are better equipped for a deep postseason run now than years past with the addition of Lance Jones, the emergence of Trey Kaufman-Renn, the improvement of Smith and the reliability of Edey in the post. I like any plus-odds price on the Boilermakers to cut down the nets in Minneapolis.

Big 12 Tournament odds

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing

  • Houston Cougars -135
  • Iowa State Cyclones +280
  • Baylor Bears +800
  • Kansas Jayhawks +1200
  • BYU Cougars +1500
  • Texas Tech Red Raiders +2000
  • Texas Longhorns +3000
  • TCU Horned Frogs +6500

Big 12 Tournament best bet: Houston Cougars (-135)

The Houston Cougars made the transition from the AAC to the Big 12 look easy, as they won the regular season title and maintained a top 5 national ranking for a majority of the season. Their depth has been challenged with injuries to Terrance Arceneaux, Ramon Walker and most recently Joseph Tugler, but they still have plenty of pieces to win the Big 12 Tournament in their first season in the conference. Jamal Shead and Ja’Vier Francis are the 2 most valuable defenders in the nation per EvanMiya, and the Cougars held their final 2 opponents to 81.9 points per 100 possessions without Tugler – who was top 10 nationally himself in EvanMiya’s defensive performance rating before his injury.

With LJ Cryer, Emanuel Sharp, and Shead’s ability to make big shots and lead Houston’s offense in unison with the nation’s most efficient defense, the Cougars are going to be very difficult for anyone to beat in March. They lead the conference in turnover rate, so they do not give opponents extra possessions. Furthermore, they rebound over 34% of their missed shots against conference opponents, creating additional possessions and second-chance opportunities. Even without Tugler and his defensive contributions, I still project the Cougars to win this conference tournament around 60% of the time and would play this up to -155.

Pac-12 Tournament odds

Odds available at ESPNBet at the time of publishing

  • Arizona Wildcats -170
  • Washington State Cougars +400
  • Colorado Buffaloes +500
  • Oregon Ducks +1100
  • Utah Utes +1500
  • Washington Huskies +3000
  • USC Trojans +4000
  • UCLA Bruins +5000
  • Stanford Cardinal +6000

Pac-12 Tournament best bet: USC Trojans (+4000)

Arizona’s odds do not present much value, as the implied probability of that number suggests the Wildcats will win the Pac-12 Tournament more than 60% of the time. Given how vulnerable they have been away from home, it is difficult to lay that big of a number. Colorado represents some value, but the injury concerns of Cody Williams and Julian Hammond make the Buffaloes difficult to peg. Therefore, I’m going to take a shot with the USC Trojans, who are healthy and playing great basketball as of late.

Getting past Arizona will be the biggest test for USC en route to winning the conference tournament, but Trojans excel defensively and have shown an ability to limit Arizona’s offense. They held the Wildcats to under 1.1 points per possession in Tucson, and were even better in the regular season finale – holding Arizona to just 0.89 points per possession. USC boasts the 23rd-rated defense over the last 3 weeks per BartTorvik, forcing turnovers on 20% of opposing possessions. On the other end of the court, their now-healthy guard duo of Isaiah Collier and Boogie Ellis make the Trojans dangerous offensively – as shown by their 41.7% 3-point percentage in the last 3 weeks. There’s enough here for a run in the Pac-12 tournament, and I would not mind playing this down to +2500.

SEC Tournament odds

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing

  • Tennessee Volunteers +130
  • Auburn Tigers +260
  • Kentucky Wildcats +400
  • Alabama Crimson Tide +450
  • Florida Gators +2000
  • South Carolina +6000
  • Mississippi State Bulldogs +6500

SEC Tournament best bet: Florida Gators (+2000)

The Florida Gators drew a favorable path in the SEC Tournament for the style in which they play. As one of the fastest-paced and most efficient offenses in the country, the Gators can score with the likes of any team in this conference. They have already beaten Alabama and Kentucky this season – 2 teams they would potentially have to go through en route to the SEC title game who are outside the top 200 in adjusted defensive efficiency over the last 2 weeks per BartTorvik. In fact, Florida is fortunate enough to be on the opposite side of the bracket of the 3 best defenses in the conference according to effective field goal percentage. 

In addition to having a fast and efficient offense, the Gators are very good on the offensive glass and convert their second-chance opportunities at a top 30 rate. Furthermore, they are top 2 in the conference in opposing 3-point rate and assist rate, which will be a useful trait against the offensive juggernauts in the SEC. At +2000 or better, the Gators are worth a sprinkle.

Mid-Major Conference Tournament previews

Mountain West Tournament odds

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing

  • San Diego State Aztecs +230
  • Utah State Aggies +440
  • Nevada Wolf Pack +550
  • Boise State Broncos +600
  • Colorado State Rams +700
  • New Mexico Lobos +700
  • UNLV Runnin’ Rebels +850

Mountain West Tournament best bet: Nevada Wolf Pack (+550)

Nevada played very well down the final stretch of the regular season, winning 11 of its last 13. The Wolf Pack are the most experienced team in the conference, and have a pair of 5th-year guards leading the way in Kenan Blackshear and Jarod Lucas – which is crucial for success in postseason basketball. Additionally, Nevada is the only team in the Mountain West to rank top 30 nationally on both sides of the ball in the final 3 weeks of the regular season. Given their balance and experience, the Wolf Pack have what it takes to cut down the nets in their home state and earn an automatic bid into the NCAA Tournament.

American Athletic Conference Tournament odds

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing

  • Florida Atlantic Owls +165
  • Memphis Tigers +440
  • SMU Mustangs +480
  • South Florida Bulls +550
  • North Texas Mean Green +850
  • Charlotte 49ers +1300
  • UAB Blazers +2400

AAC Tournament best bet: South Florida Bulls (+550)

The Bulls avoid meeting the FAU before the title game, which makes these odds pretty appealing. For reference, the implied probability of +550 is 15.38%, and I think USF has much better than a 15% chance to add a conference tournament championship to its regular season title. The Bulls have the best defense in the conference; one that is top 25 nationally per BartTorvik’s adjusted efficiency in the last 3 weeks. They should not have much issue with the winner of Tulsa/ECU, and while a matchup against the winner of Memphis/UAB would be challenging – that opponent would be in a difficult spot against the conference’s best defense the day following what should be a competitive matchup.

Atlantic 10 Tournament odds

Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing

  • Dayton Flyers +160
  • Richmond Spiders +500
  • Loyola Chicago Ramblers +575
  • Massachusetts Minutemen +650
  • VCU Rams +1200
  • George Mason Patriots +1300
  • Duquesne Dukes +1500
  • St. Bonaventure Bonnies +1500
  • Saint Joseph’s Hawks +1700
  • Davidson Wildcats +5000

Atlantic 10 Tournament best bet: Loyola Chicago Ramblers (+575)

The Ramblers enter the postseason with a top 25 mark in Haslametric’s momentum thanks to the 8th-most efficient defense nationally over the last 3 weeks of the regular season. The Ramblers have experienced guards, multiple 40%+ 3-point shooters, and the nation’s best rim-protector in freshman Miles Rubin according to KenPom’s block rate – which makes them a threat to beat the Dayton Flyers in a potential semi-final matchup. Speaking of the Flyers, they ended the season 292nd in momentum and under-performed defensive expectations in 6 of their last 7 games.

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