Matt Marquart
Show Bio
The winners of Sunday’s games will punch their tickets to the Final Four in New Orleans. At this point in the season, lines for spreads and totals are extremely sharp, but the player prop market still has some value to pick off. I’ve selected the following three props that warrant consideration from the two matchups. Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Armando Bacot Over 15.5 points (-104)
It’s interesting that not only is this line set below Bacot’s season average of 16.4 points per game, but it is also shaded to the under. Saint Peter’s is a fantastic story I would not be shocked if they compete again, but this is a matchup where Bacot could dominate. The Peacocks really don’t care because they are still dancing, but their lack of size has been exposed a few times in the tournament already. Despite losing, Kentucky’s Oscar Tshiebwe went for 30 points on 11/16 shooting and grabbed 6 offensive rebounds. He also 12 free-throws in that game. On Friday, Purdue’s twin towers, Trevion Williams and Zach Edey, combined for 27 points on 12/22 shooting.
What I like about Bacot’s chances of scoring are not only about his skills, but his opportunity as well. Unlike Purdue that employs a timeshare between Williams and Edey, Bacot rarely leaves the floor. North Carolina ranks 343rd in KenPom’s bench minutes metric so all their starters, including Bacot, play heavy minutes. Bacot has played at least 30 minutes in nine of the last 10 games and I expect he will barely leave the floor with a trip to the Final Four on the line. The one game in which Bacot did not play 30 minutes was the 32-point win against Marquette in the First Round. Lastly, Bacot could get a few easy put-backs that would be a big boost to the over. He is one of the best offensive rebounders in the country and Saint Peter’s has given up double-digit offensive rebounds in each NCAA Tournament game thus far.
Remy Martin Under 13.5 points (+100)
It may seem foolish to bet against Remy Martin at this point, as he has gone over this number in all three NCAA Tournament games so far. However, this matchup suits Kansas’s Ochai Agbaji more than prior games. Agbaji is the leading scorer for the Jayhawks but went for just five points on 2/8 shooting in the game against Providence. The primary reason for this was Justin Minaya, the ace defender for Providence. This forced Martin to create offense for Kansas, which he did with flying colors. This matchup is a bit different though, as Miami’s defense is better at the guard position than on the wing. This isn’t as much of a fade of Remy Martin as it a play in assuming Martin takes the secondary scorer role as opposed to dominating the Kansas offense. As evidenced by the next pick, I could see Kansas playing more through David McCormack in this matchup as well, which would theoretically keep Martin’s point total lower.
David McCormack Over 9.5 Points (-128)
Despite McCormack failing to reach double figures in any of Kansas’s three NCAA Tournament games, expect to see him score at least 10 points in this matchup. McCormack has not been a major part of the Kansas offense thus far in the tournament, but I expect that Bill Self will play through him in the post frequently against Miami. Miami’s interior defense is a major weakness, ranking just 326th in field goal percentage defense at the rim, per Hoop-Math. The Hurricanes also rank in just the 34th percentile in post-up defense according to Synergy, which is the primary method of scoring for McCormack.
I also think there is a good chance that McCormack could get some buckets even when the offense is not run through him in the post via offensive rebounding. Per KenPom, McCormack ranks fourth nationally in offensive rebounding rate. Miami ranks just 271st in defensive rebounding rate, so some second-chance opportunities should be available for McCormack. He’s scored in double-figures in 20 of 37 games this season but not once in the NCAA Tournament, so perhaps we are getting a cheaper price because of his recent games.
Pickswise is the home of March Madness Predictions. Check out all of our March Madness Picks, including daily March Madness Parlays throughout the NCAA Tournament.
